The United States and its allies have so far resisted. Sieges, bombings and killed civilians could change your mind: in this conflict, decisions have often been determined by the field. According to Kiev, Putin is now aiming for a Korean scenario
The Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky insiste: give us tanks and hunts. The United States, together with partners, have resisted so far. British Prime Minister Johnson reiterated it two days ago: doing it very complex. But until when will it be? The sending of this type of weapons considered indispensable by the Ukrainians to defend their positions, replace the losses suffered – not a few – and try to gain positions. The only anti-tank missiles, the Javelins, and the portable anti-aircraft missiles, the Stingers, at most they allow for containment, but they are unable to make a difference. The danger – already evident – of a crisis that drags on while the great resistance involves an enormous sacrifice.
Now there could be an obvious factor helping Kiev’s request, tragic, undeniable. The massacre of Mariupol, the destruction in other cities, the continuous bombings – on Saturday there were 70, a record, also extended to Lviv, in the west, a strategic center for supplies and humanitarian aid: only 8 were shot down by the Ukrainian defense – are intolerable because involving civilians more and more. It is precisely this deliberate strategy of Putin that can lead Biden and other Western leaders to consider supplies that have been denied up to now. This move, of course, would nevertheless have significant political weight and should take into account the reaction of the Kremlin, which has already launched harsh threats of intervention against this hypothesis.
Over the weekend, however, the Ukrainian Defense Minister Dmytro Kuleba would have declared – according to theAfp – that the United States no longer opposes Poland’s handover of Mig fighters to Ukraine: Now the ball in the Warsaw field. This step, if confirmed, would represent a significant evolution. In this conflict, in fact, we have seen how it was precisely the field a determine some decisions, especially on the war supplies front. To mobilize in a massive way, the West waited for the Army’s assault, then sending tens of thousands of anti-tank and anti-aircraft pieces: the Ukrainians’ holdings convinced them that it was not a late assistance.
As has been said, US intelligence, while capable of predicting the assault, was convinced that Zelensky’s soldiers would be overwhelmed and he had also communicated it to the Washington political leadership. Instead the special operation turned into one struggle of friction, at least for now. Hence, the resistance, along with some successes, could get the White House to review the agenda giving green light for important material, something that allows the attacked to make life even more difficult for the attacker. The time factor, for many, is decisive: there are those who consider it a point in Russia’s favor (they risk only soldiers, the Ukrainians much more) and those who believe that the quagmire in the long run gives reason to the stubbornness of Ukraine.
Much will depend, however, on victories and defeats on the ground. According to Kiev’s intelligence chief, General Kyrylo Budanov, Putin’s new target would now be the Korean scenario, that is to divide Ukraine in two – the occupied and unoccupied territories – and then call a referendum: this was indeed one of the scenarios envisaged at the beginning, and returned to the news after a statement by the leader of the self-proclaimed pro-Russian republic of Lugansk. I think that in the near future there will be a referendum in the territory of the republic, with which the people will express their opinion on joining the Russian Federation, said the leader of Lugansk, Leonid Pasechnik.
Returning to the central theme, there is no doubt that Kiev needs a lot: long-range guns, radars that allow you to discover artillery, tanks, ground-to-ground missiles, combat aircraft, attack drones (in greater numbers than the Bayraktar Tb2 already obtained from Turkey), equipment to counter fighters at high altitudes and medium. Something was promised, such as Soviet-designed Sa-8 anti-aircraft systems and S-300sto use which Ukrainians do not need long training, more would have arrived in an undeclared way – so some sources say – but the bulk still to be decided.
According to the technicians, there may be training and preference problemsbeing means that require knowledge, preparation and, of course, availability. In the arsenals of some neighboring countries there are weapons compatible with Ukrainian ones, but – as this crisis recalled – not everything proceeds as planned. The bottom line always remains that of the possible reprisal of the Tsar: the expansion of the Ukrainian shield by the West could be interpreted by Putin as a direct hostile act.
March 27, 2022 (change March 27, 2022 | 19:43)
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