Published on Sep 1, 2022 at 7:15 am
The passage to the pump should be even a little less painful from this Thursday. After the discount of 18 cents on fuel prices introduced in the spring, motorists will be able to benefit from the rebate of 30 cents which comes into force on 1is september. Voted by Parliament in July as part of the package of measures in favor of purchasing power, this boost will last two months before being reduced to 10 cents from 1is November and until December 31.
The context in which this discount takes place has nothing to do with that of last spring. At the time, the price of a barrel of oil rose inexorably, dragging in their wake those fuels that had crossed the symbolic threshold of 2 euros per litre.
Today, fuel prices are falling. The super unleaded 95 is sold on average at 1.7797 euros per liter and the super unleaded 95-E10 at 1.7392 euros, according to the latest statements from the Ministry of Ecological Transition. The price of diesel has risen in recent days but remains below 2 euros, at 1.9488 euros per liter on average. At the same time, the price of a barrel of oil fell, pulled down by fears of a slowdown in the global economy.
An average gain of around 40 euros
Despite the decline in prices at the pump, the government assumes the maintenance of the rebate at 30 cents, a measure whose cost is estimated at 1.17 billion euros for public finances, according to estimates by the Asterès cabinet. For households, the average gain will be around 40 euros for the months of September and October, assesses Asterès.
The executive hopes to see fuel prices return to their level of a year ago, around 1.50 euros per liter. For this, he is also counting on the discount offered by TotalEnergies, which will be added to his own. The tanker plans to drop by 20 cents, this Thursday, the price of fuel sold in its stations until October 31, then by 10 cents from November 1 to December 31. The measure, which pisses off small independent stations, applies from the first liter purchased and without limit of amount.
“It’s always taken! Motorists need this breath of fresh air, at a time when the start of the school year is showing record inflation, ”said Philippe Nozière, president of the association 40 million motorists, in a press release. “Anything that relieves the wallets of the French currently is welcome”, Bercy recently confirmed to “Echos”.
Volatility
But these efforts to reduce the bill at the pump are undermined by the high volatility of oil prices. There is no guarantee that the fall in prices, and with it that of fuels, will continue in the coming months. Crude prices have been rebounding for a few days now, boosted by the prospect of a possible OPEC+ production cut. The cartel and its allies, including Russia, have signaled that they are ready to act to put an end to the turmoil in the oil markets. Words that are enough to push Brent prices back above the $100 threshold.
Already, voices are being raised for the rebate not to be reduced from 30 to 10 cents in November, then abolished on 1is January. “The government cannot abandon motorists on the night of December 31 to 1is January”, estimates Pierre Chasseray, general delegate of 40 million motorists, who continues to plead for a reduction in VAT on fuels to 5.5%. A decision that the government refuses to take.
According to Asterès, the most effective support measure remains aid targeted at the most modest households, as the executive had for a time envisaged. According to the firm’s calculations, if the amount of 1.17 billion euros that the fuel discount of 30 cents will cost were distributed evenly to the 50% of households with the lowest incomes, via a fuel voucher for example, it would result an average gain of 81 euros per household.