2023-10-16 00:59:41
Not all the analyzes carried out in these dramatic days seem to grasp that the new scenario in the Middle East does not constitute “another front” but rather an extension of the one already underway, projecting the same problems that have triggered other conflicts. Unfortunately, the current confrontation between superpowers will consolidate this further outbreak, forming a broader front.
In this context, it is useful to photograph the characteristics of this new conflict:
The failure of the “Territories for Peace” project and the current situation
The recent escalation of violence between Israel and Gaza is the result of a long path of failures and political tensions, including the “Territories for Peace” project. Initially, the hope was that Israel’s withdrawal from some occupied areas could lead to stable coexistence and peace between Israel and its neighbors. However, this project has proven problematic, with the rise of radical groups such as Hamas and the failure to reach a long-term solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
The threat of Hezbollah and the expansion of the conflict
As the world’s attention focuses on Gaza, Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Lebanese militant organization, has claimed action against Israel. Although there is currently no official confirmation of the escalation of the conflict, the threat of Hezbollah’s involvement raises serious concerns. An expansion of the conflict to all of Lebanon would lead to an even more devastating crisis in the region.
There are some analysts who suspect that the games have already been decided and that the US aircraft carriers in the Mediterranean could indicate a desire to widen the conflict, especially to include Lebanon and Syria. For its part, the Permanent Mission of the Islamic Republic to the United Nations today issued a statement to the Russian publication ‘Ria Novosti’ saying that its armed forces will not enter combat if Israel launches a ground operation in the Gaza Strip, a unless Tel Aviv attacks Iranian territory. “The Iranian armed forces will not be involved as long as Israeli apartheid does not dare to attack Iran, its interests and its citizens. The resistance front (Palestinian, ed.) can defend itself“, the diplomats responded when asked by an agency correspondent whether the country is intervening in the situation.
Hezbollah’s direct attack and the asymmetric conflict
The idea of a direct Hezbollah attack on Israel cannot be overlooked. Hezbollah is known for its military strength and its ability to conduct highly sophisticated guerrilla operations. A direct attack by Hezbollah could take the conflict to another level, involving more regional and international actors.
Gaza as Israel’s “Vietnam”.
The current situation represents an asymmetric conflict between Israel and Hamas, with Gaza potentially becoming a sort of “Vietnam” for Israel. The determination of Hamas and the support of some Arab countries increase the complexity of the situation. The ongoing military operations in Gaza present Israel with significant challenges, not only on the battlefield but also on the diplomatic front.
The initial goal of the withdrawal from Gaza
The initial goal of Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza was to obtain peace in return. However, the situation deteriorated rapidly when Hamas took control of Gaza and began launching attacks on Israel. The presence of Hamas in Gaza has hindered any attempt at peace negotiations and created a reality in which the conflict seems endless.
Hamas and the normalization agreements
A key goal of Hamas is to sabotage normalization agreements between Israel and some Arab countries. The organization believes that these agreements are a betrayal of the Palestinian cause and is trying to undermine these diplomatic developments.
Concern over the arrival of Palestinian refugees
The recent escalation of the conflict has raised concerns among Israel’s neighbors about the possible arrival of Palestinian refugees. These countries fear that the increase in refugees could destabilize their own communities and create further tensions in the region.
The need to barricade oneself at home
Due to the escalation of violence, Israeli civilians may be forced to take shelter indoors to ensure their protection from ongoing attacks. This situation has a significant impact on people’s daily lives and security, as it threatens the normality of activities and peace in the country. Furthermore, the conflict requires significant resources from both the United States and the European Union to support the ongoing war effort, while the Israeli economy risks suffering significant paralysis due to the ongoing war events.
The complexity of Palestinian radicalization
The narrative of Palestinian radicalization due to Israeli occupation is complex and controversial. Many argue that Israel’s long occupation has contributed to feelings of desperation and anger among Palestinians, fueling extremism. However, the issue goes beyond this simple explanation, also involving internal Palestinian politics, regional divisions and external influences.
In this context, the current situation urgently requires a diplomatic solution and a renewed commitment to address the deep roots of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Peace and stability in the region requires a joint effort from all parties involved and a strong international commitment to find a sustainable solution to this long conflict.
However, it should be noted that this same fault line could be exploited by actors involved in other global disputes, such as the confrontation between the United States and China or the rivalry between Russia and the BRICS countries. This could hamper efforts to consolidate the BRICS and develop a new multipolar system.
The complexity of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict requires a multilateral approach and constant commitment from the international community to achieve lasting peace in the region, while at the same time it is necessary to consider the interconnectedness of global conflicts and the implications these have on the Middle Eastern situation.
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