The results of the three-day voting for the elections of deputies of the State Duma, which ended on Sunday, September 19, did not come as a surprise to German experts on Russia. Political analysts polled by DW on Monday believe that in the course of this election campaign, old and new methods were worked out to guarantee the result the authorities needed, which will be used in the presidential elections in the Russian Federation in 2024.
“The most uncompetitive elections since the collapse of the USSR”
Historian of Eastern Europe, historian Susanne Spahn has been observing election campaigns in Russia, both parliamentary and presidential, for over 20 years. She calls the last elections to the State Duma a “farce”, which was accompanied by massive manipulations and repressions long before the start of the election race.
“These are all methods that have existed for at least 10 years and are constantly repeated. The only difference is that manipulation and repression are becoming more sophisticated and massive,” says Spahn in an interview with DW. preparation for the elections in a few months, removing competitors in advance, first of all, Alexei Navalny and his supporters. “
Stefan Meister
According to Stefan Meister, an expert of the German Society for Foreign Policy (DGAP), the last elections were the most uncompetitive ever since the collapse of the Soviet Union: “In the post-Soviet history of Russia there has never been an election that was so carefully planned and organized , were carried out with almost complete absence of opposition and independent media. “
Gwendolyn Sasse, Scientific Director of the German Center for East European and International Studies (ZoiS), agrees with this assessment: condemnation of Navalny, but also repressive legislation that was applied against individual candidates and allegedly “extremist” organizations such as Navalny’s structures. “
Old and new methods of electoral control
In addition to methods known from the old times that allow the authorities to obtain the desired election result, such as “carousels”, bribery of voters and outright stuffing of ballots, German experts talk about new tools.
Thus, Suzanne Spahn points out, the extended voting allowed more active use of the administrative resource: “On Friday, on the first day of elections, civil servants were taken directly from work by buses to polling stations so that they could vote under supervision.”
Gwendoline Sasse
Gwendoline Sasse also draws attention to the first applied method of online voting, which, in her opinion, can be seen as preparing such tools for the presidential elections scheduled for 2024.
In general, the director of ZOiS believes, the past parliamentary election campaign can be considered a rehearsal for the upcoming presidential one. And experience has shown, says Sasse, that with the help of such methods and preemptive repression, it is possible to keep the protest potential at a sufficiently low level.
“The regime is nervous.” Why?
At the same time, however, all German political scientists interviewed by DW saw the authorities’ desire to rule out any surprises. This is a sign that the regime is nervous. Gwendoline Sasse gives two reasons.
The first is a decline in the personal rating of Vladimir Putin: “Despite the fact that according to polls, Putin is still trusted by about 60 percent of the population, for the president of an authoritarian system, who previously had a rating of over 80 percent, this is a wake-up call.”
And the second reason is a certain fatigue of society: “The era of Putin has lasted too long.” Therefore, in the future, the expert believes, “he needs an obedient parliament, which, if necessary, is capable of adopting repressive laws and amending the constitution.”
Susanne Span
“I think that Putin’s entourage is afraid of a scenario like the Belarusian one, when, despite the repression and manipulation, which were enough in Belarus, people still take to the streets en masse, they are afraid of unpredictable protest actions and mass demonstrations,” she answered the question about the reasons for the nervousness of the Russian authorities to Suzanne Spahn. However, she herself rather excludes the Belarusian scenario for Russia.
Yes, the expert says, “according to the Levada Center, less than half of Russians now believe that Russia is on the right path.” Yes, there is great discontent among people, there are serious economic problems, including those related to the coronavirus epidemic, there is a decline in living standards, and there is poverty. But people’s readiness for street protests is another matter.
“Polls show,” says Spahn, “that many are not willing to take the personal risk of being beaten, arrested, or losing their jobs.” Therefore, in her opinion, there will be no such mass actions as in the winter of 2011-2012 in Russia: “People are intimidated by arrests and tough measures against the protesters.”
Back In The USSR?
“We see that Russia is moving towards an even more repressive regime, it is closing more and more, turning into a country where everything is under control, everything is even more organized than it is now,” Stefan Meister said in an interview with DW. Many elements very much remind him of the order that prevailed in the Soviet Union.
Suzanne Spahn makes a different comparison: “Russia is becoming more and more like the former GDR, where there were a couple of tame parties to maintain the facade of democracy, which did not question the ruling party.”
The political system in Russia, in her opinion, is unambiguously developing towards a totalitarian regime in which political and public life and the media are strictly controlled.
But if so, why put so much effort into holding elections?
“The Kremlin needs to preserve the semblance of democratic elections, the semblance of the existence of a parliament, which is very important for legitimizing the regime itself,” Stefan Meister replies. It is necessary to encourage people to come to the polling stations, but at the same time to make sure that nothing “burns out”, given the fact that many are dissatisfied with the policy of the authorities, in particular, the pension reform of 2018. “
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