There is no certainty of tomorrow. Dante already knew this centuries ago, Germany, France and Europe with them are also discovering it. Within a few months, the two traditional locomotives of the Old Continent will be forced to travel on new tracks. And it is not said that they are better than the old ones, quite the contrary. Despite four years of time, in Berlin they have not yet really prepared for what will happen after next September 26, election day. Above all, the Germany is not yet ready to do without Angela Merkel.
One might think that the guiding scepter of the European Union, held by the Chancellor since time immemorial, could pass to Emmanuel Macron. But the French president is about to conclude his first term, which is not excluded from being the only one. There is not alone Marine Le Pen as a challenger: after the unexpected success in the regional elections, even the much more insidious Republicans of Christiane Jacob and the figures of the well-known right-wing polemicist also stand out on the horizon Eric Zemmour and the super star virologist Philippe Juvin. In short, the future of the Franco-German axis, the traditional pillar of the EU, is shrouded in a series of unknowns.
GERMANY ELECTIONS, CDU POST MERKEL IN THE POLLS
Let’s start from Germany. Six weeks before the elections, the polls return a merciless picture for the country’s main political force, the CDU. According to the latest survey of Forsa, the CDU-CSU union lost three percentage points in the space of a week and fell to 23%. A very low figure and close to the historical low of a party that in the last 16 years has always been in government thanks to the four mandates to the chancellery of Angela Merkel.
The causes of the collapse are to be attributed to the weakness of Merkel’s heirs. In recent years, Frau Angela has put a lot of energy into finding her heir. It had been chosen first Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, but her constant faux pas de facto excluded her from the race. The same Ursula von der Leyen, another papabile, has been chosen for the presidency of the European Commission and is therefore unable to take up Merkel’s baton.
CDU POST MERKEL, THE HEIR ARMIN LASCHET DOES NOT CONVINCE THE GERMANS
After long hesitation, he was spotted Armin Laschet. A name that did not excite everyone, on the contrary. His appointment as president of the CDU, which took place on January 16, came with only 52% of the votes, ahead of challenger Friedrich Merz. And even in recent months it has failed to garner a unanimous consensus, either outside or within the majority party. He could be the one who pays the most for the effects of the recent one flood in North Rhine-Westphalia. First of all because he is the governor of the Land overwhelmed by water. Secondly because of a video in which he is filmed laughing about the disaster sites. Needless to say, the comparison with Merkel is nothing short of merciless.
GERMANY ELECTIONS, THE UNEXPECTED RELAUNCH OF OLAF SCHOLZ’S SPD
At the same time, it seems to have relaunched l’Spd. The Social Democrats had been given up for dead after the failures of recent years but now they seem to be on a great comeback. According to the latest polls, they have risen to 19%, the highest figure since April 2018. Much of the credit goes to Olaf Scholz, who seems to be reaping the rewards of his work as vice-chancellor and finance minister. A role in which he prepared an economic plan to contain the effects of the pandemic that was highly appreciated by the Germans.
GERMAN ELECTIONS, VERDI AND SPD INSIDE THE CDU
According to all the surveys, Scholz likes more than his party. It is no coincidence that they remain in second place in the polls the Greens by Annalena Baerbock, accredited by 20%. But the unknowns about Germany’s political future remain, also because the green wave that seemed ready to overwhelm the country has had an ebb due to a few too many dead ends of Baerbock, which has frightened the fundamental national automotive industry with some output. poorly balanced.
GERMANY ELECTIONS, POSSIBLE GOVERNMENT COMBINATIONS. BUT THE POST MERKEL IS SCARED ANYWAY
How will it go after the vote on September 26th? The hypotheses are essentially three. The first, and more traditional, is that of one “Jamaica” coalition which includes the CDU / CSU, the Greens and the Liberal Democrats of the FDP, who can return to play a fundamental role in the composition of the new government after being out of it for the last eight years. The second possibility is instead a coalition “black green”, with the only alliance between CDU / CSU and Verdi if these two parties get enough votes to be alone. The third possibility, which until recently seemed impossible, is that of one “traffic light” coalition that sees the CDU / Csu excluded. In this case the grand coalition would be formed by Verdi, Spd and Fdp.
Whatever happens, the shadows remain many. After Angela Merkel’s safe and firm drive, the future suddenly appears indecipherable, even for the big ones differences of views that exist between the different parties that can make up the different coalitions, both on industrial policies and on the line to be maintained in foreign policy.