The German press had come to hypothesize at least six, from Kenya at the Germany: the vote, however, made it clear that the next government of the Germany, the first in 16 years without Angela Merkel chancellor, may be supported by one traffic light coalition or from one Jamaica coalition. The future of Berlin and Europe boils down to these two paths. The first leads to a government led by Olaf Scholz, with her Spd ally of gave and liberals (Fdp). The second would see instead Armin Laschet Registrar and the Cdu in government together with the Greens and liberals. On the one hand an executive moved to the left, which for Europe it means a greater push towards one revision of the stability pact and towards the energy transition. On the other hand, a government in continuity with the German stiffness – especially in terms of public accounts – in which only the Greens would represent an element of novelty. There remains a third option, the one that no one wants to name for now: yet another re-edition of the Big coalition, with Spd and CDU in government together. The Social Democrats have long rejected this hypothesis: they want to finally see the CDU and the CSU in opposition.
Are the colors to determine the nicknames of possible coalitions: Spd (red), Verdi and Fdp (yellow) therefore give a win traffic light (traffic light in German), while if red is replaced by blackCdu / Csu Union, here comes the flag of the Jamaica (black-yellow-green). The outcome of the vote, on the other hand, was not enough to determine a clear winner: of course, Scholz’s Spd is front and conservatives with Laschet must register theirs worst result always, but i seats conquered to Bundestag they say that both formations can aspire to the chancellery. Now the phase of the electoral campaign ends and the negotiation phase begins: who will succeed sooner and better to agree gave e free he will be able to lead Germany for the next few 4 years.
It is not an easy task: in the 2017 the government was formed long after the elections (the September 24, but the Bundestag only elected Merkel for the fourth term as chancellor March 14 2018). This is because before forming a Big coalition the road of the Jamaica coalition had been tried: then it hadn’t worked just for incompatibility between the Greens and the liberals (with the latter having blown the table). Four years have passed but the distances remain. THE gave they are certainly the party that pushes the most to review the Stability Pact, so much so that they even ask for farewell to Black zero (a balanced budget) at home. THE free, on the other hand, they consider the suspension of the Stability Pact up to 2023 like a parenthesis: once the pandemic is over, it must return the time of rigor. Another potentially divisive theme is theenvironment. The Fdp is against the introduction of deadlines more stringent and in general it remains faithfully deployed alongside the industry (like the CDU). THE gave obviously have the most ambitious goals: by 2030 reduction of emissions 70%, exit from carbone and stop cars with internal combustion engine.
In the case of a traffic light coalition (with inside Spd, Verdi and Fdp), the position of those who want to review at least i EU regulations which derive from Maastricht – such as debt repayment procedures – would therefore be majority. Similarly, for when the SPD is more moderate than the Greens, the push towards the energy transition would also likely be more decisive. On the contrary, in the case of a Jamaican coalition (CDU, Verdi and Fdp) the critical positions towards austerity they would find little space (and to celebrate would be the frugali). As well as on the climate, an issue on which conservatives and liberals do not deny the need to act, but always paying attention to sensitivity and the needs of the world ofindustry.
Another theme that splits Greens and liberals is about fiscal policies. The environmental party wants to raise taxes on higher incomes, the introduction of a digital tax and the return of one patrimonial. Liberals have promised a generalized lowering of taxes, with particular regard to companies. But also a revision of the income tax, which would trigger the first bracket no longer at 57 thousand but at 90 thousand euros. Two opposing views: also in this case, the ideas of the Greens are shared for the most part by the SPD, while the CDU has a vision much more in line with the FDP. Now, however, be it Scholz that Laschet they will have to look above all to the more distant counterpart, to try to bring it to the table: on the possible ones concessions the decisive game will be played from the Social Democrats to the Liberals and from the Conservatives to the Greens.