There is no better and more accurate reflection of the current political picture since the inauguration of the new Knesset. What in the eyes of the general public looks like a kind of celebrity party – roughly like an Oscar night event – for the politicians inside, the event is an opportunity for an operative arena review. The precious hours between the ceremony and the ceremony are both the timing and the time to update and be updated, examine the cut and draw conclusions.
Cracks in the right block? “It is not possible that after the success in the elections, Smotrich is reduced”
“Smotrich will give up security in exchange for Israel Land Authority”
Itamar Ben Gvir had good reasons to be happy and celebrate this week, and not just in honor of being sworn in as a Knesset member. Ben Gvir himself, by the way, is admittedly a fairly new MK, but all his faction members had the privilege of being sworn in for the first time in their lives. While the other partners ranged between “disengagement and tension” like Bezalel Smotrich, and “anger and dissatisfaction” like the ultra-Orthodox , was the only chairman of Otzma Yehudit who made good progress against the Likud.
On Wednesday evening, Ben Gabir went into another personal meeting with Netanyahu, and came out of it with an impressive list of achievements that included, among other things, the training of more than 60 unauthorized outposts, the change in the secession law, which will allow, among other things, the retention of the controversial Chumash yeshiva, and the hand Another italic. And yet, whoever thinks that as far as Ben Gavir is concerned, the matter is closed and done – he is wrong. “At the beginning of the negotiations, we forwarded to Likud a document of demands that includes 180 clauses. We’re only halfway there, but we’re making good progress,” Otzma Yehudit summed up the fruitful week.
Netanyahu’s people, who were not present in the room during the conversation between the prime minister-designate and the BTP minister-designate, but are present in the negotiation rooms, often praise the “comfortable” Ben Gabir, compared to the “tough and stubborn” Smotrich. This astonishment of Netanyahu’s people in view of Bezalel Smotrich’s amazing bargaining power raises questions and causes eyebrows to be raised among the veterans of the political system.
“From the first moment after the victory, it was clear that Smotrich remained the same Smotrich, he is a master at conducting negotiations, and it is strange that even this time Netanyahu approached the talks with him with the concept of ‘everything will work out, and everything will be fine, and in the end Bezalel will drop the excessive demands and take what we offer to him’. It is clear as day that every exercise that is used in front of him is transparent to Smotrich. No wonder the business is stuck.”
Well, among all the exercises and among all the spins employed in the Netanyahu-Smotrich sector, the most prominent event is definitely the line led by Shas Chairman Aryeh Deri. The best ultra-Orthodox commentators failed in their effort to decipher Deri’s true intentions. “Is he really interested in the Ministry of Finance, or is this a sophisticated spin whose entire purpose is to deprive Smotrich of his ambitions to play in the Premier League?” – many wonder.
Well, Deri to the Ministry of Defense had a short and fleeting spin. On the other hand, the affair of the Shas leader with the treasury case turns out to be a much more complex story. The demand for the treasury was indeed designed as an exercise to block the way to this office for Smotrich. Here many among the future ministers show unanimity. They get dizzy just thinking about contacting Smotrich “stubborn and uncompromising for the purpose of obtaining money for their offices. “Smotrich in the treasury will be an unbearably difficult event,” argued quite a few sources in Netanyahu’s ears.
However, Deri’s demand to serve as the next finance minister of the State of Israel turned from a political exercise into a real infatuation with the idea. A kind of fictitious marriage that suddenly develops into real feelings, just like in the movies. But then came the disillusionment, in view of the fact that the treasury portfolio simply does not match the nature of the social Shas party.
It is not the possible legal difficulty of getting permission to serve as finance minister after being convicted of tax offenses that really worries Deri. The nature of the position simply goes against his party’s agenda. Deri, who received 11 mandates thanks to the social flag he waved, cannot afford to suddenly be the one who keeps the money and looks for where to say no.
In light of what has been said, the assessment among sources close to the coalition negotiation arena is that the package Deri will receive in his hands will include the interior portfolio for him; the religion portfolio, which is considered the grand prix in the eyes of all the Likud’s religious partners; the Ministry of the Negev and the Galilee, which is a significant center of power that includes large budgets and a host of desirable options; and also the welfare portfolio.
Goldknopf’s veto
And back to Smotrich. The battle of digging against him is expected to continue, but the real solution is known to Netanyahu’s people. Back during the election campaign, members of the Religious Zionist Party from Smotrich heard that what he really wanted was the Israel Land Authority, which is currently in the Ministry of Construction and Housing.
Smotrich has a complete plan to carry out if and when the authority passes into his hands, chief among which is the comparison of land prices in the Jewish sector with those in the Arab sector, when this means a dramatic lowering of prices for Jewish citizens. “This will allow people to buy and also build in the Negev and the Galilee. These are the strategic areas where we must expand the Jewish presence before it is too late” – these words were heard from Smotrich more than once. According to estimates, if the package includes the Israel Lands Authority, Bezalel Smotrich’s demands for the treasury or security portfolios will be dropped from the chapter.
But here another obstacle appeared. The future minister of construction and housing, chairman of Torah Judaism Yitzhak Goldknopf, is the one who is supposed to receive the Israel Land Authority, which is, as mentioned, within the scope of his designated ministry. The people in Torah Judaism heard about the solution, and could not believe what they were hearing. , were outraged and made it clear that “if there is no Rami within the construction ministry – there is no Torah Judaism in the coalition, let them get along.”
What is clear to all the partners in the tense game – and thus there are no differences of opinion between them – is that after the victory at the end of five rounds of elections, there is no scenario in which the government does not rise. And yet, in order for this to happen, the work of assembling the puzzle has to be completed, and it will take more time, more nerves and a few sleepless nights.
To conclude, we will return to that festive day of the swearing in of the new Knesset. The picture of the situation would not be complete without mentioning the Likud members. These days there are no coalition members more unhappy and charged than members of the ruling party. The victory celebrations are over, and the celebration of the distribution of roles is delayed.
The door of the Likud chairman is locked to the members of his list, including the most senior and veterans. Likud members obtain the scraps of information about what is happening in the negotiation rooms mainly from media reports. Yariv Levin, by virtue of his position as the director of the coalition negotiations, is the only one who gets to speak with Netanyahu. “As usual, we will be satisfied with what remains after most of the fat is divided between the coalition partners,” the despairing MKs from the Likud agree. But here it should be noted that their hope was not lost. If the puzzle works out the way Netanyahu wants – at the end of the saga, the security and treasury portfolios will remain in the hands of the Likud.