The Cold War chill is well felt in the last 24 hours in Eastern Europe as the Russian military conducts threatening military exercises in Belarus near Ukraine and the US is stepping up warnings of a Russian invasion “that could take place within days”. Life for diplomatic meetings in an attempt to prevent a full-scale war.
Here’s a look at what’s going on – where and why:
Why in the last day do the winds of war seem to be blowing harder?
“We can not set the day at this point, and we can not set the time, but it is a very, very clear possibility,” President Joe Biden’s national security adviser Jake Sullivan said on Friday. He added that Biden’s talks with his European counterparts indicate that they are fully united and will react harshly to the Russian invasion, including through economic sanctions.
U.S. intelligence, it has been reported in the past day, estimates that senior Russian military officials have been ordered to prepare for war. A warning in this spirit has been reported to European leaders in recent days. The escalation in U.S. warnings comes in the wake of new intelligence that showed a further increase in the number of Russian troops near the Ukrainian border in parallel with more intensive training conducted by the Russian military.
At the weekend, it was reported in the German “Spiegel” that the American intelligence mentioned on Wednesday the day when Russian military action against Ukraine will begin. The White House said it still did not know if Russian President Vladimir Putin had made a decision to invade, but he said Putin had gathered all the factors to do so quickly and told Americans in Ukraine to leave within the next 48 hours. Several NATO allies, including Britain, Norway and Denmark, are also asking their citizens to leave Ukraine.
While many analysts have estimated that any invasion will not begin until after the end of the Winter Olympics in China on February 20, history shows that Putin has already invaded other countries during two previous Olympics. At the Sochi Olympics in 2014, the Russian army invaded Ukraine and annexed the Crimean peninsula and during the 2008 Beijing Olympics it invaded Georgia and annexed about a fifth of its territory.
“Simply put, we continue to see very disturbing signs of Russian escalation, including new forces reaching the Ukrainian border. And as we have already said, invasion can begin at any time,” US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said at a news conference.
Later on Friday, Biden spoke with a number of European leaders to highlight concerns raised by US intelligence regarding the imminent potential of a Russian invasion.
What measures are being taken by the West as a result?
In an attempt to demonstrate American commitment to NATO allies, the Pentagon is sending 3,000 more combat troops to Poland to join the 1,700 already assembled there, a senior U.S. defense official said Friday. Sent to the area in recent weeks.
Ukrainian soldiers load anti-tank missiles delivered from US / Photo: Associated Press, Efrem Lukatsky
At the same time, in another attempt to prevent war, the White House said that US President Joe Biden is expected to talk on the phone with Russian President Vladimir and Putin and discuss the general crisis.
The talks in Berlin between Ukraine and Russia, joined by France and Germany, initially gave hope for some progress as they lasted until Friday morning, but in the end, no change in the existing status was achieved. Later this week, German Chancellor Olaf Schultz is scheduled to meet with Putin in Moscow.
So far, the only “slightly positive” news that has come out in recent days seems to come from the axis of talks between London and Moscow. On Friday, British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said he had a “constructive yes” discussion with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Shoigu. “I have heard clearly from the Russian government that they have no intention of invading Ukraine,” Wallace told reporters in Moscow, adding: “We will judge this statement by the evidence.”
How did we get to the current crisis?
In 2014, Putin sent troops to occupy the Ukrainian-controlled Crimean peninsula. An agreement from 2015 established a new land division line and called on the parties to make concessions. Fighting has since continued along the front and both sides have blamed each other for breaching the agreement.
Beyond diplomacy, what has been done militarily in recent days?
Near the northern border of Ukraine, Russia and its ally Belarus began yesterday 10 days of “war games”, which include massive exercises with live ammunition, helicopters, tanks, missile launchers, planes and of course soldiers.
A reinforcement of about a thousand soldiers and heavy military equipment entered the air base at the port of Constanta in the Black Sea of Romania. The sea is of great strategic importance, so it houses military bases of Russia, Ukraine and NATO allies.
“From the Black Sea region to the Baltic Sea – the Allies are stepping up their forces to strengthen NATO’s presence at this critical time,” said NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg of Constanta. Romania’s neighbor Bulgaria will receive reinforcements from Spanish planes To strengthen the presence of the Alliance in the region.
Meanwhile, Russian warships from the Baltic and Northern Navy arrived in the Black Sea Gulf of the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia annexed in 2014. The ships join several other ships that are part of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. Moscow has announced sweeping exercises in the Black Sea and Moss Sea in the coming days and closed large areas to commercial shipping, prompting fierce protests from Ukraine.
“There is a risk of a military invasion,” Stoltenberg warned, but added that other threats lurk “including attempts to overthrow the government in Kiev.”
What are Russia’s interests in undermining the region?
There are historical, cultural and linguistic ties between the two countries. After the fall of the Iron Curtain, Moscow continued to see Ukraine as an important geopolitical space and watched the rise of pro-Western sentiment there with great apprehension. After popular demonstrations in Kiev and other cities forced a pro-Russian president to resign, Russia annexed Crimea, the seat of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, and began supporting pro-Russian militias in eastern Ukraine.
Demonstration in Kiev against Russia, earlier today / Photo: Associated Press, Efrem Lukatsky
Since then, more than 14,000 people have been killed in the Donbes district, despite a peace agreement brokered by Germany and France. The ceasefire violations intensified this year, and the thickening of Russian forces made the nerves even more tense.
In addition, Russia sees an interest in Ukraine’s resources – its lands produced a lot of wheat and it was an important commercial center as part of the Soviet Union.
What is Putin trying to achieve from the occupation of Ukraine?
Russia has denied plans to invade Ukraine, accusing NATO of arming its neighbors with advanced weapons systems, fueling tensions and undermining the entire Eastern European region.
Russian officials have argued that Moscow only wants to maintain a balance of interests in the region, which it says is being violated by NATO. East or will place weapons systems near Russia.
However, various security experts estimate that the main goal of the Russians is to prevent the West from having a strong relationship with the government of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zalansky. The Kremlin, many Western analysts estimate, fears that the success of Ukrainian democracy could undermine Russian confidence in Putin.
Moscow has considerable pressure on its allies in Europe through its gas supply – Russia supplies about 40% of the continent’s imported gas. The recent energy crisis in Europe has caused prices to skyrocket, raising questions about the readiness of a number of European countries to take significant steps against Moscow.
At a joint news conference with Baiden and Chancellor Schultz this week in Washington, the US president said that if Russia invaded his country, his country would “put an end to the Nordstream 2 project.” United, and will work together and take all necessary steps. “
British intelligence claimed in January that the Russian government was plotting to oust the Ukrainian president and appoint a pro-Russian puppet government in Kiev. U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said in this regard that the United States “warned of just such a tactic as early as a few weeks ago.”
What economic sanctions are available to the West?
There are several options at stake and include individual and collective sanctions ranging from harming Russian oligarchs in Putin’s immediate vicinity and disconnecting them from the Western oxygen pipeline, to Russia’s general disconnection from the US dollar, without which it is impossible to get along in the international arena.
Is it possible to harm Russia economically immediately?
One of the main options that certainly poses a significant threat to the Putin regime is Russia’s disengagement from the SWIFT system (the “World Association of Financial Communications between Banks”), the clearing house through which the global banking system operates. It passes information between various financial institutions such as banks and about 80% of international payments are processed through it.
If this sanction is implemented, Russia will indeed be hit immediately as the Russian business arena will be cut off from the ability to transfer or receive funds – including profits from the sale of issuance and gas, which currently account for more than 40% of the country’s revenues.
Has this option been tried before?
In the past, during the Russian invasion of the Crimean peninsula, this possibility came up but was shelved after Putin threatened that it would mean “unlimited war” on the part of Russia.
It should be noted that Russia’s disconnection from SWIFT has a butterfly effect that includes harm to other economies, including the US and its main ally Germany, which have common interests such as the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.
What else can be done financially?
Another significant economic sanction is the blocking of Russia’s access to the US dollar. The dollar still dominates the world’s financial transactions and trillions of dollars “change hands” every day in transactions, when they are eventually cleared through the Federal Reserve and other U.S. institutions. Unlike SWIFT, which is not just US-dependent, it is an autonomous decision by Washington.
This sanction will be felt immediately by both Russian citizens and by Russian private companies as well as the Russian government itself, which will prevent them from carrying out routine daily activities.
One of Russia’s biggest infrastructure infrastructure projects in recent years is the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline, which it and Germany share. In recent years the U.S. has been loading up more and more stubbornness that is delaying the completion of construction, however in order not to damage relations with Germany, the Biden administration has taken off the table some objections to the Trump administration.
Once activated, the pipeline will increase Europe’s dependence on Russia, and under certain geopolitical conditions it may be subject to Russian interests, since once the gas pipeline is activated it will de facto become an “oxygen pipeline” without which Europe could not do. In the US Congress, voices are heard from both sides to impose sanctions. But while Republicans are willing to do so right now, Democrats are “waiting” for an invasion of Ukraine.
As noted above, Biden told a joint news conference with his new German chancellor, Olaf Schultz, that a Russian invasion would put an end to Nord-Stream2.
Another option facing the Biden administration is to extend the ban the U.S. imposed last year on U.S. financial institutions to purchase Russian government bonds. Congress could extend the ban to the private market as well.
The White House is also considering imposing controls on exports to Russia and adding it to the list of supervised countries such as Cuba, North Korea and Iran. This move has far-reaching technological implications because of the dominance of American tech companies in the international arena. If this sanction is implemented, Russia will have difficulty obtaining chips, for example, which will limit Russian industry in a wide range of significant civilian areas, from aviation to the smartphone industry.