Un historical event occurred in Italy and in the European Union. For the first time since, on June 2, 1946, the Italians chose the Republic by referendum, the presidency of the Council of Ministers will certainly go to a woman, Giorgia Meloni, who has a fascist past in a country whose Constitution is anti-fascist. It has largely broken with this past without totally repudiating it, and, oscillating between a desire to reassure and an extremist temperament, it is striving to transform Fratelli d’Italia into a radical right-wing party, populist, conservative and sometimes even reactionary. Among the many questions raised by this event, three deserve to be addressed.
First, how did Giorgia Meloni win? Fratelli d’Italia is not alone. It belongs to a coalition with Matteo Salvini’s League, Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia and a few tiny centrist parties. This coalition, beyond its differences, for example on Europe and the war in Ukraine, was perfectly adapted to the particularities of the voting system. It presented a single candidate in the uninominal majority colleges in a round called to appoint 37.5% of deputies and senators. Faced with candidates from the divided oppositions – from the center, from the center-left Democratic Party and its small allies, from the 5-Star Movement – she raided. This triumph was therefore mechanically predictable.
The dominant position acquired by Fratelli d’Italia in the coalition is another unprecedented fact. This party obtains, in the proportional part, 26% of the votes in the Chamber of Deputies (4.3% in 2018), in addition to some 9% of the League and 8% of Forza Italia, giving a total of almost 44% to a set no longer center right but center right.
Hence the second question: why did Giorgia Meloni gain such ascendancy? Since 1994, Italians have systematically chosen alternation. However, his party, born in 2012, has always been in opposition and appears to be new despite coming from an old political family. However, Giorgia Meloni does not simply want to gain power; it intends to represent the alternative, to resolve the deep political distrust of the Italians (as evidenced by the record of abstention, more than 36%) and to remedy their social discontent.
Population upheavals
It leaves its traditional anchorage in the South, in Rome and in some corners of Veneto, to spread everywhere, even becoming the first party in the North, to the detriment of the League. She evokes liberalism and tax cuts for some (while her party was “statist”), social protection for others, and denounces, for everyone, migrants, insecurity, Islam, or even the elites. She declines the theme of national identity, this historical question never really resolved for Italy since its unity, by affirming that she will defend tooth and nail the interests of her country, and by proclaiming her pride in being Italian.
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