2023-05-15 19:03:56
By @pmpalermo
Scandiano › Viareggio (196km)
Stage with 3000 meters of positive elevation gain, but almost all of it in the first 90 km.
It has two categorized ports, one of 2nd (4.2 km at 6.4%) and another of 4th (2.6 km at 8%). But before that, within the first 15 km of the day, there is an uncategorized elevation of 2.8 to 8.2%. What’s more, from kilometer 41 to 88, the terrain is in an almost constant ascent and there are several hidden climbs.
Baiso is the aforementioned level that is within the first 15 km, ideal for starting the getaway.
The categorized ports aren’t that great, but we’ll take a look at them. First, Passo delle Radici:
Y Monteperpoli:
Of course, after the 4th category port (for the organization), the last 76 kilometers of the fraction are almost flat or in descent. There are too many easy kilometers for something to happen on the climb. Of course, it is there where the leak can be divided or, if there were not, where one would start. The kilometers after it, the wind will be favorable for a long stretch.
The arrival is flat and direct, ideal for a massive sprint. There is hardly a curve, 3500 m from the finish.
Climate
Alert for storms and rains in the area. Moderate to strong northwesterly wind is expected throughout the day. That means that during a large part of the stage he will hit cross.
scenarios
INEOS inherited the pink but there will be no action for the leaders until Friday, so they will not look badly at giving up the prestigious shirt and this may be the first opportunity to do so. That would open the doors to people relatively high up in the general like Leknessund himself, Barta, Buitrago or Dunbar. INEOS will lead the pack but will impose a false rhythm.
One point to consider is the start of the stage, because there is terrain and weather for chaos to reign.
Facing a sprint, only Trek could be interested because Pedersen meets all the requirements: he climbs and has a sprint on the flat. Jayco is not going to collaborate because Matthews would lose in the packaging, and not to mention the other sprinters. We could only see a volata if they walk up. And they might, but the wheelers aren’t going to sit still. To mention that Groves has been ill so Alpecin won’t risk it and Bahrain has enough to protect Haig, Caruso and Buitrago so Milan won’t have anyone to work with.
This implies that the aforementioned would jump on stage with the Maglia Rosa between their eyebrows, or many others like De Marchi and Clarke, who almost made it on a much easier day and with better weather.
Unless there is a massive agreement in the peloton, this will be for the escape.
favorites
Stefano Oldani: With Groves sick, Alpecin will give free reign to his riders. Oldani won a similar stage last year.
Alessandro DeMarchi: He does not have a sprint but that is not why he will stop trying. He has a great engine and a lot of courage.
Simon Clarke: He will be closely watched, but he will try and he has plenty of tricks in his bag to achieve it. If it’s not him, Israel will send Mads Wurtz.
Will Barta: Exceptional wheeler, he defends himself in small arrivals. Likewise, his would be to go for pink since he is 4:56 behind Evenepoel and is not a real threat.
Andreas Leknessund: He placed 6th 1:07 behind Remco and is not a contender in the mountains. Why not give him back the pink?
Magnus Cort: The EF option in an ideal world. The problem is that his form is not yet the one that leads him to win where he wants when he is fine. But if he makes the cut, he will be a favourite.
Lorenzo Rota: He was 2nd last year in the stage won by Oldani. It meets all the requirements for a gender day.
Vincenzo Albanese: Get on, pack and roll. As he sneaks into the breakaway he will be the man to beat, especially since he is in full swing.
Trek: They have Pedersen, but the best thing for them would be to throw Mollema or Skujins and forget about it.
Quickstep: Without Remco, their stage hunters will have freedom. Mattia Cattaneo is a good name.
Prediction
He is an exceptional rider and even so he took the time trial calmly. That’s why I go with Mads Wurtz.
Paul Palermo
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