more than one million people in the UK are currently living with glaucoma, and that number is projected to surge to over 1.6 million by 2060,according to new research. The startling statistic-a 60% increase-highlights a growing public health challenge as the population ages and access to timely eye care remains uneven.
The figures, published in the British Journal of Ophthalmology and commissioned by Glaucoma UK, are nearly 50% higher than previous estimates of glaucoma prevalence. Researchers estimate that over half a million people in the UK are currently undiagnosed with the condition-a leading cause of irreversible blindness were damage occurs to the optic nerve connecting the eye to the brain.
A looming Crisis for Eye Health Services
glaucoma rates are expected to climb faster than the overall population growth, largely driven by an aging demographic. This trend will inevitably place increasing strain on already stretched healthcare resources. Experts are urgently calling for expanded eye health services and a greater emphasis on regular eye examinations.
“Glaucoma is a common cause of blindness, but it isn’t symptomatic until its later stages, so regular tests are important for early diagnosis,” explained Professor Paul Foster, lead author of the study and a researcher at the UCL Institute of Ophthalmology and consultant ophthalmic surgeon at Moorfields Eye Hospital. “Previous studies have estimated that half of glaucoma cases are undiagnosed, and this is even higher among some ethnic minority groups who are more likely to experience delays in diagnosis.”
What happens when glaucoma is diagnosed late? Late diagnosis carries a higher risk of sight loss and increased healthcare costs; over 40% of glaucoma patients in the UK experience preventable vision loss due to delayed diagnosis and treatment, such as eye drops or surgery.
Globally, glaucoma is the primary cause of irreversible blindness. Key risk factors include elevated eye pressure and increasing age. Often, the condition progresses without noticeable symptoms until important vision loss has already occurred.
How the Numbers Were Calculated
To arrive at these new prevalence estimates, researchers analyzed UK-wide data on age, sex, and ethnicity for individuals aged 40 and over-as glaucoma is rare before this age. Participants were grouped by five-year age bands, sex, and four broad ethnic categories: European, African, Asian, and mixed/other.
The team estimated glaucoma prevalence within each group, drawing on the best available international evidence. For individuals of European ancestry, they utilized age- and sex-specific estimates from the European Eye epidemiology Consortium. For non-European ethnic groups, they applied relative risk estimates from other studies to a European baseline.
Currently, an estimated 1.1 million people in the UK-3% of the population over 40-have glaucoma.This percentage rises to 4% among those of African descent, and a striking 11% among individuals over 85.
Previous estimates suggested around 700,000 people were living with glaucoma in the UK. Researchers say the earlier figures underestimated the number of undiagnosed cases and didn’t fully account for recent demographic shifts.
Although non-European groups comprise only 6% of the UK population aged 65 and older, they account for 8% of current glaucoma cases.
“Glaucoma sight loss is largely preventable, but only if people can be seen within an already over-strained system.more accurate estimates of the prevalence of glaucoma will help the NHS to plan to meet this growing population’s needs, ensuring we have the necessary capacity, workforce and infrastructure.
“We call upon the NHS to create the National Eye Strategy which is required to meet this challenge.”
