2023-05-28 00:00:00
Las Global temperatures will break records over the next five yearsaccording to a study prepared by a team of specialists from the World Meteorological Organization that was recently released by the United Nations Organization.
The study also highlights that there is a 98% probability that at least one of the next five years will be the hottest in all of Earth’s history and 66% that at least in one of those years the critical global warming threshold of 1.5 °C will be exceeded.
“There is a 32 percent chance that the average temperature in the next five years will exceed the 1.5 °C threshold. The chance of temporarily exceeding 1.5°C has risen steadily since 2015, when it was close to zero. While, for the cycle between the years 2017 and 2021, the probability rose to 10 percent, ”says the report.
“human impact Has propitiated an increase in global average temperatures of more than 1°C since the late 19th centurydue to the emission of greenhouse gases. In 2022, the global mean temperature exceeded the average for the period 1850-1900 by approximately 1.15°C, despite the cooling effect caused by the La Niña climate phenomenon y, currently, temperatures rise by about 0.2°C every decade”, added the specialists.
For its part, the work also warns that the phenomena of The boy are directly linked to above average sea temperatures in much of the central and eastern pacificwhich helps both to heat the lower atmosphere such as increase global temperatures by about 0.1°C. And while this small increase may seem insignificant in the context of accelerating global warming, experts say it’s enough to beat any previous record.
“Since the establishment of the current global temperature recordseven years ago, human activities have continued to exacerbate the greenhouse effectwhich increases the possibility of establishing a new temperature record”, underlines the study.
Finally, the report shows that El Niño indicators are beginning to appear in the Pacific at the same time that their consolidation for the coming months of June and July of this year seems inevitable, which could give rise to the first major El Niño event since 2016since it would substantially increase the probability of exceed the record for the highest global average temperature recorded that year, specifically in the year 2024.
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