LondonIn the mid-1540s, central Europe was hit by such an extreme drought that in some towns water cost more than wine. Fish died in the lakes, the sun was obscured by smoke from forest fires, and the Rhine, now an essential trade artery for Germany, as well as a source of life, was reduced to little more than a shallow stream.
Almost five centuries later, a large part of Europe – including the Rhine – suffers, whether or not it does, the same fate: conditions particularly aggravated since the beginning of August by a persistent drought since January, together with the combination of extremely high temperatures – the United Kingdom, for example, reached over 40 degrees this summer for the first time – the result of repeated heat waves since the end of May.
Rainfall anomalies
Data from June 10 to August 10 according to the standard precipitation index
Variation in the standard precipitation index
Extremely dry
Inferior a -2
Variation in the standard precipitation index
Extremely dry
Inferior a -2
Variation in the standard precipitation index
Extremely dry
Inferior a -2
All of this has caused two thirds of Europe to be experiencing some degree of drought, according to data from the latest report from the European Commission’s Global Drought Observatory. Specifically, 47% of the territory is in a pre-alert situation due to the extreme dryness of the land and another 17% is on alert due to the great “signs of stress” shown by the vegetation.
Europe suffers worst drought in 500 years”
Global Drought Observatory
The areas where the worst effects of the drought can be felt are Italy, Spain, Portugal, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Romania, Hungary, northern Serbia, Ukraine, Moldova, Ireland and the United Kingdom. In addition, the same conditions are likely to persist in the western Mediterranean for the next three months.
Factor determinant
Drought becomes a determining factor in the economy, as Professor Derek Lemoine of the University of Arizona has shown in a 2018 study. The data he analyzed allowed him to conclude that the productivity of the United States slowed down at the level of a drop of 0.15% to 0.25% for every 0.56 degrees Celsius above average summer temperatures.
In addition to the impact on productivity that Lemoine pointed out, the negative consequences on harvests will further favor already very high inflation in the euro zone, of 8.9% in July, or also in the United Kingdom (10.1% ). Because the exceptional water and thermal stress causes a substantial reduction in the production of some basic crops and also of other subsidiary ones, such as the olive, which is very affected in Catalonia by the extreme climatic conditions.
In fact, in the European Union the yields for the corn, soybean and sunflower crops will be the most affected, with reductions (compared to the average of the last five years) estimated at less than 16%, less than 15 % and less than 12%, respectively. With the global food market already very stressed by Russia’s war in Ukraine, the lack of water will add even more inflationary pressure to the situation.
Another of the harmful effects on the economy is energy production. Rainfall deficits have widely affected river discharge levels across Europe, and the reduction in water volume in marshes has had serious impacts on the energy sector for power station hydroelectric generation and cooling systems. In particular, the production of electricity has been reduced by around 20%, the report points out. As an example of this effect, it is only necessary to point out that this Thursday the company Acciona Energia has paralyzed for the first time the power plant in the Rialb swamp, at this time below the minimum, at only 7% of its capacity. Or the already iconic image of summer in the Sau swamp, where the drought has left the bell tower and a large part of the church of Sant Romà exposed.
From a bird’s eye view, with satellite images, the continent has a barren, dry appearance. But, on the ground, the problems due to the lack of water and extreme temperatures are becoming serious. The Observatory highlights specific situations in France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands and Portugal. Thus, the Po Basin Authority, in Italy, has confirmed the current classification at the highest level of drought severity and maintains the alert for the low level of reserves.
In France, more than a hundred municipalities have water supply problems, and it is brought in by trucks. 66 French departments are at the highest level of drought alert and at least 93 more are experiencing one of the first three alert levels. In France, too, the drought has fueled forest fires: 60,000 hectares of land have burned there since the beginning of 2022, more than double that of 2021 and 4.6 times the average of the last ten years. The nuclear operator EDF also had to reduce the production of one of the plants in the south-west of the country at the beginning of August due to the high temperatures in the Garonne river.
In the Netherlands, the impacts are related to the low flows of the Rhine, which affect trade, due to problems of navigation, stability of dikes, water distribution and intrusion of sea water. As is also happening in Germany, where the reduction in ship loading is affecting the transport of coal and oil, with a negative impact on energy production.
In Spain, the water in the reservoirs is around 58% of the average of the previous ten years, while in some regions of the south of the peninsula (Andalusia and Extremadura) they are around 30% of the average of the decade previous Finally, in Portugal, hydroelectric energy produced in reservoirs is less than half the average of the previous five years.
A common scenario
This summer’s record heat wave in Europe could be commonplace in less than fifteen years, even if the world meets climate targets: droughts and fires will become the norm. And by the end of the century, a typical summer will be 4 degrees warmer than pre-industrial levels, more than double the 1.5°C target set by the Paris Agreement. The data is revealed by a report from the Met Office Hadley Centre, from the United Kingdom, published this Friday.
On the other hand, the Climate Crisis Advisory Group (CCAG), an international coalition of scientists who commissioned the report, has called for a rapid reduction in emissions, measures to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and a plan to to cool the Arctic Ocean again, which has suffered one of the most extreme warmings so far this 2022.
The Hadley Center report comes amid fears of a global rollback on climate initiatives as governments grapple with record energy prices following Russia’s aforementioned invasion of Ukraine. For example, global coal consumption is expected to match a record this year and the European Union’s use of the crude fuel is expected to rise 7%, according to data from the International Energy Agency .
Beyond Europe, more drought
china
A record heat wave, combined with a months-long drought during the usual flood season, has wreaked havoc in normally water-rich southern China. The lack of rain has dried up parts of the Yangtze River and dozens of tributaries, drastically affecting hydropower capacity and causing blackouts and power rationing in major cities, affecting industrial production. Many cities across the country have been forced to impose blackouts. In Chengdu, the capital of Sichuan province, many neighborhoods have been without power for more than ten hours a day. In addition, drought is also threatening food production, and the government has ordered local authorities to take all available measures to ensure crops survive the hottest summer on record. Last Tuesday, four government departments issued an emergency warning and warned that the autumn harvest is under “serious threat”.
Africa
The Horn of Africa is experiencing its worst drought in more than 40 years. This region of East Africa stretches from Eritrea in the north, through Ethiopia and Djibouti, to the southern ends of Kenya and Somalia. More than 18 million people are suffering from severe hunger in Ethiopia, Somalia and Kenya, according to the US government’s Humanitarian Information Unit (HIU). Around 7 million children are acutely malnourished and the UN Refugee Agency, UNHCR, estimates that 1.5 million people have been displaced. The region has experienced below-average rainfall for four consecutive years. Climate change, armed conflicts, rising international food and fuel prices and the impact of covid-19 are factors that explain the current crisis. Russia’s war against Ukraine has affected the supply of wheat and fertilizers in the Horn of Africa. Figures from the United Nations indicate that the cost of an average food basket has risen by 66% in Ethiopia and 36% in Somalia, leaving many people unable to afford even basic items.
Brazil
Brazil’s agricultural GDP has fallen by 8% in the first quarter of 2022 due to a severe drought in the south of the country. In Rio Grande do Sul, the country’s southernmost state, 56% of last year’s total soybean harvest was lost, hurting thousands of farmers. Scientists warn that climate change will make widespread crop losses more frequent in this region of the country, a stronghold of agriculture. Over the past two harvests, soybeans and corn, which together account for 88% of Brazil’s domestic grain production, have produced 47 million metric tons below projected output due to adverse weather conditions. Soybean production is down 14% in 2022.