2023-11-01 17:00:00
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Climate change is an issue extraordinarily complex both environmentally and politically and socially. In recent years, climatologists have repeatedly warned about the disastrous consequences that rising temperatures will have for the world as we know it. In this scenario, both scientists and certain social movements call for action by governments to take measures to mitigate the consequences before it is too late. Many times the limit of temperature rise is placed in 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, a figure that we may surpass in the coming years. But why 1.5°C?
More heat, more energy to the system
The greenhouse effect created by the Earth’s atmosphere allows the temperature on our planet to be about 14.6 °C. This temperature is the global average, that is, many regions far exceed it, while at the poles, or at high altitudes, they remain far below. Now, due to the burning of fossil fuels and other human activities, a accelerated increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases. This implies that more heat that reaches us from the Sun is trapped in our planet, so the temperature continues to increase.
Atlantic warming is an unprecedented phenomenon
Between 1850 and 1900, when accurate and routine temperature measurements began, The global terrestrial average was estimated at around 13.5 °C, that is, 1.1 °C less than today. The trend extracted from the data shows that temperatures will continue to increase, and that 1.5 °C of superthe maximum limit of global warming that was established in the Paris Agreement of 2015. This increase in temperatures is, ultimately, an increase in the energy present in the climate system, which translates into a increased frequency of extreme weather eventssuch as heat waves, wildfires, floods and hurricanes.
But as we have seen in recent years, many regions are experiencing extreme phenomena despite not having yet reached 1.5 °C. This is because, with each additional decimal the probability, intensity, and frequency of their occurrence increases. Over the past 3 years, the La Niña phenomenon has mitigated the rise in temperatures, but the onset of El Niño means that in the coming years, the average temperature could rise to be 1.8 °C higher than in the pre-industrial era . Although 1.8°C is unlikely, climatologists estimate that The chances of exceeding 1.5 °C in the next 4 years are 66%.
So it’s over?
Of course not, just because 1.5 °C is exceeded occasionally does not mean that all efforts have been in vain. However, it is in our hands that it is not normal to be above these temperatures. According to the IPCC, to prevent the Earth’s average temperature from exceeding 15 degrees, humanity should achieve carbon neutral emissions by 2050. This would require a global effort, ranging from very important investments in new energy technologies to a change in the current production and consumption model.
The idea is stop emitting gases so that those who have been poured out until now go, little by little, focusing again on biological and geological processes. But there is a long way to go, especially with the three most important greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O). These gases are responsible for almost 90% of all the heat from the Sun is more than absorbed by the Earth compared to the pre-industrial era.
Photo: iStock
And the cause is clear, its increase. In May 2023, carbon dioxide concentrations reached 424 parts per million (ppm), in 2021 methane concentrations reached a record of 1908 parts per billion (ppm), and nitrous oxide concentrations reached a record 334.5 ppm. . Compared to the pre-industrial era, these values represent a increase of 150%, 262% and 124% respectively. These gases have a relatively long life in the atmosphere, so achieving a balance in their emissions by 2050 is a possible goal and, as the data show, a necessary one.
What can save us?
All the actions that are carried out add to the global calculation. For example, encourage renewable energy sources and the creation of new technologies such as nuclear fusion would significantly reduce emissions related to energy production. He too use of new construction materials That they do not release CO₂ during their construction would help the creation of habitats have a lower impact on the atmosphere. In addition, there are hundreds of initiatives that seek substitutes for everyday materials with more sustainable ones, and the capture technologies CO₂ have made it possible to create an “artificial photosynthesis” that stores the gas in the form of organic compounds.
But we should not fall into techno-optimism and think that new and better technology will magically solve the problem. For a global crisis of these characteristics, global solutions are needed, and these solutions include political and social measures. Finally, temperature is just one of the factors that influence the health of the planet. There are other variables that can cause an ecological disaster and have also reached worrying levels, as we mentioned in the following article.
They identify the “safe” limits for life on Earth. And we have already passed several
Crossing the fair and safe limits for life has been able start a snowball effect that is very difficult to stopTherefore, these years are critical for the future that awaits us. For now, it is advisable to continue collecting data, reducing anthropological carbon sources and closely monitoring natural ones to observe the changes that occur. In this way we could act accordingly, and thus, 1.5°C maximum will remain a possible target.
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