2024-05-08 11:29:12
International organizations are forecasting a sharp rise in global trade flows in 2024, following last year’s slump caused by high inflation, rising rates and weak demand.
As Day.Az reports with reference to Gazeta.ru, the Financial Times writes about this based on the opinions of experts from international organizations.
As follows from the forecasts of the OECD, IMF and WTO, the rise is due to the recovery of the US and Chinese economies.
The OECD estimates global trade in goods and services will grow by 2.3% this year and 3.3% next year, after rising just 1% in 2023.
“We see quite positive developments in global trade this year and next,” said OECD chief economist Claire Lombardelli.
She explained that much had to do with the “cyclical recovery” in trade amid a general pick-up in economic activity. According to her, China and East Asian countries will be major drivers of the recovery.
Trade growth has already helped boost the GDP of the EU’s leading economies in Q1 2024. Thus, German exports in March increased by 0.9%, and in the quarter – by 3.2%, imports increased by 0.3% and 1.7%, respectively.
“We expected eurozone trade to recover this year, but exports recovered earlier than expected,” Berenberg economist Salomon Fiedler said.
The IMF also expects global trade volumes to grow by 3% in 2024. The WTO forecasts a 2.6% increase in goods trade, after falling 1.2% a year earlier.
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