New research estimates that the number of people living with type 1 diabetes worldwide will increase by 29% from 9.4 million in 2025 to 12.1 million in 2049, according to findings reported by News Medical. The study also projects that the number of new cases per year will rise by 14% across the same period, moving from 530,024 in 2025 to 605,058 by 2049.
Global Type 1 Diabetes Cases Projected to Rise 29% by 2049
The projections were developed using the DIAMOND-T1D model and led by Professor Anders Green at the Steno Diabetes Center Odense in Denmark. The findings are scheduled to be presented at the Annual Meeting of The European Association for the Study of Diabetes in Milan, Italy, which runs from September 28 to October 2.
High-Income Countries Anticipate Large Prevalence Increases
High-income countries, including the meeting host nation of Italy, will experience substantial increases in the total number of people living with type 1 diabetes. In the United States, prevalence is projected to grow by over half a million, rising from 1,492,825 to 2,055,235. The United Kingdom will see an increase of approximately one third—adding more than 100,000 cases to go from 313,725 to 420,551.
Italy is predicted to see a less steep increase of 16%, moving from an estimated 205,499 people living with the condition in 2025 to 239,145 in 2049. Despite these growing prevalence numbers, the yearly increase in new cases is expected to remain similar in 2049 compared with 2025 across high-income nations. Researchers attribute the high incidence and prevalence in countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia to a combination of genetics, environmental triggers, and high case detection rates driven by strong healthcare infrastructure.
Impact on Low-Income Nations and Global Mortality Estimates
In low-income countries such as Tanzania, the rate of new cases per year is projected to double from 3,275 to 6,177 between 2025 and 2049. Absolute numbers of people living with type 1 diabetes in Tanzania will also double, moving from a relatively low 19,101 to 39,673. While the majority of individuals with type 1 diabetes reside in high- and middle-income nations, the largest relative increase in prevalence is expected in low-income countries as access to insulin, glucose monitoring, and survival rates all improve.
The research notes that epidemiological data on type 1 diabetes remain limited, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Across all regions, the model estimates that all-cause deaths among people living with type 1 diabetes will increase from 361,383 in 2025 to 537,621 in 2049. In 2025, the 0-19 years age group was estimated to account for 15% of global all-cause deaths in the type 1 diabetes population, with that figure ranging from 4% in high-income countries to 34% in low-income countries. Additionally, the 0-19 age group accounted for 42% of incident cases in 2025, varying from 37% in high-income nations to 49% in low-income nations.
Future Access and Model Availability
Countries evaluated in the research framework include Australia, the United Kingdom, the United States, Germany, Italy, France, India, South Africa, the United Republic of Tanzania, Mozambique, Japan, and China according to Mirage News. Within the near future, the DIAMOND-T1D model is planned to launch as a user-friendly, open-access web-based system that allows users to generate alternative country-specific epidemiological scenarios by modifying key input variables.
Summarizing the broader implications of the findings, the authors concluded: We estimate a rising global T1D burden, underscoring the need to continue to improve access to insulin and quality of care, particularly in low-resource settings.
