A new security strategy is needed amid changes in the international order.
A breakthrough must be found led by the Soda Autism meeting.
With the Russia-Ukraine war in full swing, concerns are growing about an all-out war in the powder keg of the Middle East. As Israel continues to attack Hezbollah in Lebanon following the Hamas attack in the Gaza Strip, there is a possibility that the war will escalate into an Israel-Lebanon ground war. There are also observations that if Iran, which was supporting Hezbollah, moves in, the situation could easily become unmanageable.
On the 26th, the Hwajeong Peace Foundation affiliated with the Dong-A Ilbo (Chairman Hyun In-taek, former Minister of Unification) held a conference room at the Donga.com conference room in Chungjeong-ro, Seoul on the 26th, with a research committee of the foundation diagnosing the impact of the ‘two wars between Ukraine and the Middle East’ and rapid changes in the international order on the Korean Peninsula and reviewing preparedness measures. A meeting was held. The meeting, which was held at a time when changes in the international order were visible leading up to the U.S. presidential election in November, included Professor Kim Han-kwon of the National Diplomatic Academy, Professor Park Jae-jeok of Yonsei University’s Graduate School of International Studies, and Seong-yoon Jeong, Director of Unification Policy Research at the Korea Institute for National Unification (in alphabetical order). Kim Young-sik, chairman of the Dong-A Ilbo Foundation Cooperation Committee, presided over the event.
Kim Young-sik = As the war between Russia and Ukraine continues, there are concerns that Israel will strengthen its airstrikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon following attacks on Hamas, leading to concerns that the war will escalate into a ground war. What impact will the two wars have on the international community, and how should we respond?
Jae-Jeok Park = It is questionable whether a meeting with the United States as a mediator of peace is possible. There is a need to discuss new forms of warfare, such as beeping bombs and radio bombs, and their ability to wage war. In international politics, there is a need for discussion about how much of an impact Israel’s war will have on peace in the Middle East, relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, how long the war with Hamas in the Gaza Strip can last, and whether the United States will intervene.
Kim Young-sik = We are witnessing weapons that are difficult to imagine, such as beeper bombs and radio bombs. There are criticisms from the international community that this is in fact an act of state terrorism. This is an act against humanity, but how did it end up like this?
Kim Han-kwon = Previously, crisis management was carried out despite regional conflicts and confrontations under the influence of the United States and the United Nations. Conflicts are occurring everywhere due to the vacuum of influence between great powers. In the future, we need to examine the international order and consider what norms will be used to resolve the issue. In a situation where the United States is pulling out, China’s influence is expanding and problems are arising as various powers form faction structures.
![Global war spreads amid growing North Korean nuclear risk… “We need to find a breakthrough in Korean diplomacy”[화정 인사이트④]](https://dimg.donga.com/wps/NEWS/IMAGE/2024/09/28/130120930.1.jpg "Global war spreads amid growing North Korean nuclear risk… “We need to find a breakthrough in Korean diplomacy”[화정 인사이트④]")
Kim Young-sik = There is talk that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is using war to build a political foundation and escape the crisis of resignation. How far can Netanyahu go?
Jeong Seong-yoon = If things unfold in a worse direction, there are areas where Israel can be more greedy and areas where it needs to be more restrained. In terms of international politics, there is the possibility of an escalation of war, or a proxy war between the United States and Iran, taking place in the Middle East. Faced with this risk, Netanyahu will wonder to what level he will take the war with Lebanon. The United States is likely to restrain Netanyahu if it negatively affects its geopolitical interests in the Middle East. Mismanagement of Israel here could quickly highlight the Iranian nuclear issue.
Jae-Jeok Park = If the Israeli Defense Minister revolts and the situation worsens with the US presidential election being closely contested, it will be the biggest problem for Vice President Kamala Harris, the US Democratic presidential candidate. There is talk about whether Korea will participate in the AUKUS (US, UK, Australia triangular alliance), and one of the eight areas promoted by AUKUS is electronic warfare. I think something like a beeping bomb could be an early aspect of future electronic warfare.
Kim Young-sik = Iran is in an mood of restraint rather than escalation. It appears that we will remain in management mode until the US presidential election. As antipathy toward Israel spreads within the United States, wouldn’t public opinion be able to turn more negative than it is now?
Jeong Seong-yoon = The influence of public opinion on a country’s foreign and security policies has been studied extensively through the Vietnam War in the 1960s. In 1968, as the Viet Cong’s Tet Offensive and the horrors of the war were broadcast on TV, the anti-war movement influenced policy decisions. If an inhumane and anti-human war is waged like the current one, criticism against the United States will increase and it will have a significant impact on foreign and security policies.
Kim Young-sik = Russia is a permanent member of the United Nations. We are seeing significant changes in our role following the war with Ukraine. Can you say that the Russo-Ukrainian war brought about any changes in the international order?
Jae-Jeok Park = The biggest change is the spread of the theory that the UN is useless. It failed to form a UN force to respond to invasion, and it became difficult for the UN to maintain a collective security system. Additionally, depending on whether the United States and the West respond to Russia, it could have a significant impact on the future international order. In particular, if former President Donald Trump, the Republican presidential candidate, returns to power, a rift will arise between the United States and Europe.
Kim Han-kwon = America’s perspective on the two wars is important. Interest in the United States can be divided into external and domestic. When the next government is launched, fatigue will build up along with discussions about how to resolve the mountain of external problems. Another is that if the Israeli issue does not move as America intends, there may be a change in the views of American leaders.
On the other hand, if we look at the US-China relationship a little more broadly, the US wanted to exercise hegemonic leadership and play a mediating role. To keep the United States in check, China is emphasizing the role of the United Nations. If the United States’ role as a mediator is ineffective, China’s calls for a multipolar system will grow louder. China has maintained close friendly relations with Iran and can exert influence. It will be weighing its actions as a major power that emphasizes China’s responsibility and role by leveraging the multipolar relationship between the United Nations and Iran.
Jeong Seong-yoon = The Russian-Ukrainian war is going very differently than expected. The weapon systems and methods of use in war have changed. With precision weapons such as drones, the scale of casualties has decreased significantly compared to past wars. Many countries thought war was a last resort, but the threshold for a limited war may be lowered.
Since the Russo-Ukranian war took place in a strategic location in Europe, it is important to note whether it will act as a catalyst for an arms race in neighboring countries. This is not a good situation for us, who must denuclearize and ease inter-Korean tensions. In addition, North and South Korea are currently directly or indirectly involved in a war that is taking place somewhere other than the Korean Peninsula or Northeast Asia. It is no one else’s business because it is clear that this war will have an impact on North Korea-Russia relations and the North Korean nuclear issue.
Kim Young-sik = On the 25th (local time), Russian President Vladimir Putin declared a revision to the ‘nuclear doctrine’ that would use nuclear weapons if supported by a nuclear state, even if a non-nuclear state attacks Russia with conventional weapons. It appears that the existing international nuclear order has been overturned. What ramifications will this have?
Jeong Seong-yoon = The reason behind the revision of Russia’s nuclear doctrine came from a situation in which it was becoming difficult to achieve the goal with conventional weapons as the war situation reached a stalemate. Putin is trying to make drastic changes by using nuclear capabilities more offensively, but it is a different matter to assert that the possibility of using nuclear weapons in actual conventional attacks has increased.
Kim Han-kwon = There is a difference in views on the use of weapons between Putin and Russian extremists. It appears that by changing the nuclear doctrine, they are trying to turn the tide of the war or use it as a bargaining chip for a war exit strategy. We need to look into what role the influence of Russian extremists played in this decision and whether Putin is managing them. Nuclear non-proliferation is a universal value of the international community, and voices of criticism from the international community will grow on this issue.
Kim Young-sik = The United Nations’ united front that had been blocking North Korea’s nuclear development almost collapsed due to the Russia-Ukraine war. In particular, Russia has been working hard to suppress North Korea’s nuclear weapons, but now Russia is taking the lead in destroying it. It’s fatal for us.
Jeong Seong-yoon = I don’t think Russia has abandoned the principle of North Korea’s denuclearization. It appears to be the next best option for receiving military support from North Korea. As a permanent member of the UN Security Council, preventing nuclear proliferation is clearly in Russia’s strategic interest, so it is expected that Russia will engage in diplomacy to denuclearize North Korea once this war is over.
Jae-Jeok Park = It is not important how you say it, but you must judge it based on facts, such as whether you will really use it or not. It doesn’t seem like they are willing to tolerate North Korea’s nuclear weapons out of antipathy toward the UN’s economic sanctions against Russia. There are concerns about Russia’s use of nuclear weapons, but Russia, like the United States, is very worried about terrorist groups. In the past, the Soviet Union countries had experience with nuclear weapons. It seems to be temporary to encourage cooperation with North Korea because of the war, and it will not break the ice once the war is over.
Kim Young-sik = When the United States was leading the international order, there was controversy over whether the United States could handle if ‘two wars’ broke out, assuming a war broke out in the Middle East and the Korean Peninsula. Now, it appears that such concerns may be amplified. . Following Russia and Ukraine, the situation in the Middle East is progressing to full-scale war. What preparations and responses should we make for security?
Park Jae-jeok = So far, the two wars have been wars in two areas. I think it is currently possible for the United States to adequately respond to wars with different characteristics. For example, if a war breaks out in East Asia and the Middle East at the same time, East Asia will respond with the US Navy and Air Force, and the Middle East will respond with the US Army. The problem is wars taking place simultaneously in one region. The focus should be on what to do if war breaks out in the same region, such as the Korean Peninsula or the Indo-Pacific region, rather than the Middle East and other regions. For example, if war broke out in Taiwan and the Korean Peninsula.
Kim Young-sik = As you said, a war in an area centered around the U.S. Navy and Air Force, or a division into two, seems to have a bigger impact. How can China view it?
Kim Han-kwon = If the United States is to be tested in two wars, we need to organize our position on two points. First, the United States’ demands for Korea’s military and security role will increase in the region. In a situation where the U.S. security network to effectively contain China is changing from a ‘hub and spoke’ to a ‘grid structure’, Korea’s position needs to be sorted out. (The United States, as the sole power, becomes a hub and establishes relationships with individual countries This means that diplomacy is now changing to focus on the small multilateral consultative body as it is influenced by the common ideology and interests of each camp.) In addition, China is testing the United States’ ability to manage two wars and is pursuing multipolarity centered on the United Nations, which it has been demanding. We will argue that it is time for a response. Through this, they will aim to disperse American power. The two wars are closely linked to the U.S.-China strategic competition rather than to Europe and the Middle East.
Kim Young-sik = At the recent Quad (US, Australia, Japan, India) summit, North Korea’s nuclear development was condemned. It is unfortunate that this discussion was held at a meeting we missed. Is there a need for us to join or a new cooperative body?
Jeong Seong-yoon = Our country aims to become a global pivotal country that will play a leading role in setting important diplomatic and security agendas. Recently, the diplomatic and security agenda is being set and standardized as small liberalism. We need to enhance our role in smallholderism. We should focus on creating organizations and creating norms, rather than on whether to join consultative bodies created by others. When the Russo-Ukrainian war ends, we need to consider a strategy to propose and take the lead in creating a small-scale consultative body for the reconstruction of Ukraine.
Kim Young-sik: So far, our diplomacy has focused on persuading various countries to reflect on the North Korean nuclear issue. As you said, I think it is an important time to actively reflect our voices through the use of multilateral consultative bodies and the creation of new consultative bodies.
Jae-Jeok Park: First of all, Quad is participating in the guidelines and Quad Plus because it is happening in various functional areas. However, I think there is a need for our President or Minister of Foreign Affairs to try to join the Quad. In addition to the Quad, various soda conferences are being held. The North Korean nuclear issue is also important in the Quad, but it must be addressed on a different platform. India is a member of the Quad, but it is not a good platform for India, which developed nuclear weapons outside the NPT, to criticize North Korea’s nuclear issue. Rather, we need to think carefully about our entry into the AUKUS Pillar 2 advanced technology development field. If the Russo-Ukrainian war is truly a war with the West, we need to actively participate in the SODA network currently taking place in the Indo-Pacific region and take proactive measures such as dispatching maritime police to patrol conflict areas.
Kim Young-sik = When thinking about our security, it seems we need a more sophisticated approach toward China and Russia rather than making decisions by participating in one bloc.
Han-Kwon Kim = So far, we have focused on bilateral diplomacy centered on powerful countries, so our roles and positions on multilateral diplomacy are not sufficiently established. If factionalization by country and group appears in the new Cold War structure, it will lead to a soft balance rather than a physical balance. Countries that can share profits will either cooperate on each issue or compete with rival countries. We need soft and balanced diplomacy toward China and Russia. In order to manage India, China is also approaching neighboring countries with a multilateral role through soft balance through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Russia, which is looking for an exit strategy from the war, may quickly restore relations with South Korea if the war ends.
Kim Young-sik = The need to accurately diagnose and approach the international situation is growing more than ever. In what direction should we strive and contribute?
Han-Kwon Kim=Technological cooperation is important in Quad Plus. The situation is changing in each Indo-Pacific region. As the Philippines turns from being pro-China to being pro-US, the US and Japan, which have been dissatisfied with India’s role, are attracting the Philippines. Through this, the US-Japan-Philippines-Australia SQUAD system began to be established in the South China Sea. We need to look at how each country’s position and small liberalism change within each grid in the Indo-Pacific region. Japan is providing the soda jar structure and ideas that the United States wants. If Korea is to create an international SODA structure, it must think about and find out what its role and field will be.
Jae-Jeok Park = If Trump is elected and withdraws from NATO and Ukraine, it will become a very important factor and topic of controversy in international politics. For European countries, the war in Ukraine is almost an existential issue. If that happens, there will be a complete rift between the United States and the West.
Jeong Seong-yoon = Ultimately, the key question is what will happen to the global security situation after the US presidential election in November and the launch of the new administration next year. Comparing the first year and the next year when a new U.S. administration took office over the past 20 years since 2004, it can be seen that the Korean Peninsula and North Korean nuclear issues are likely to be pushed to the bottom of the list. When North Korea is trying to do something against the United States and the United States is not paying attention, it is time for us to seriously worry about how to respond.
2024-09-28 17:13:37