2023-11-30 01:55:00
A new scientific study warns that for the 2024 could be expected solar storms caused by massive changes in the stellar magnetic field. As a consequence, these events could result in interruptions in the Internet and telecommunications services via satellite around the world.
Approximately every 11 years, the Sun passes through what is known as “solar maximum”, moment when a large number of dark spots appear on its surface, which shoot violent explosions of energy outwards, heading towards Earthcausing the so-called “solar storms”.
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Although the latest forecast of the NASA placed the arrival of this recurring event at the end of 2025, a new study from an Indian team of researchers reveals that the solar maximum would have advanced and would probably arrive early next year.
The study that shows that solar storms would arrive in 2024
The research that predicts that solar showers are coming by 2024 was led by physicist Dibyendu Nandi and carried out by a specialized team from the IISER Kolkata Center of Excellence in Space Scienceslocated in India.
Nandi and his colleagues managed to devise a new way to detect the solar maximum, which resulted in a new date on which energetic storms from the celestial body could approach.
Sunspots on the surface of the celestial body.
The Sun is a huge electrically charged hot gas ballwhich moves generating a powerful magnetic field, officially known as dipole field. This extends from one pole of the star to the other in a very similar way to that of the Tierrapassing through a solar cycle.
The cycle affects all activity on the Sun’s surface, including dark sunspot generation caused by their magnetic fields. One way scientists can track the solar cycle is by counting the number of sunspots and exactly when they appear.
In the new discovery, Indian researchers they found a relationship between the rate of decrease of the Sun’s dipolar magnetic field and the rate of increase of the ongoing sunspot cycle, which give the indication of the arrival of new storms.
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The beginning of an 11-year solar cycle, when the star has the fewest sunspots, is known as solar minimumwhile the completion of the solar cycle is the solar maximum, when the Sun has the greatest number of sunspots.
“During the minimum of the solar cycle, when almost no sunspots are observed on the Sun, the intensity of the dipole field is maximum,” Dr Nandi told MailOnline. And he added: “When the sunspot cycle begins to increase, the large-scale solar dipole field begins to weaken and assumes a more complex configuration”.
“The dipole field disappears during the peak of the sunspot cycle and then changes direction and begins to slowly grow again,” continued the specialist.
Sunspot captured from close up by a telescope.
“Predicting the moment of maximum amplitude of the sunspot cycle is important for determine when environmental conditions are expected most adverse space conditions (space weather)”, he states in his article published in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society.
Finally, he concluded that “it is not possible to predict the intensity and consequences” of solar storms so early, but they should be able to observe more as the new year approaches.
The consequences of the solar storms that would occur in 2024
During solar maximum is when it is expected the most violent space weather, which would produce a solar storm. With it, a large amount of charged particles and electromagnetic radiation would be ejected that could affect satellites orbiting the earth.
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These alterations could cause a massive loss of connectivitycausing entire countries to be isolated and disconnected from data sources for weeks, despite being able to have a local connection through submarine cables.
“The most intense storms can sometimes cause a catastrophic orbital decay of satellites in low Earth orbit and disrupt satellite-based services such as communications and navigation networks,” said researcher Nandi.
And he added: “They can also cause strong disturbances in the geomagnetic field that trigger electrical networks located in high latitude regions.” “Of course, also create beautiful aurorasso we can expect that 2024 will be a good year for aurora hunters,” explained the specialist.
The solar storm could cause failures in the planet’s connectivity.
What are solar storms and how often do they occur?
A solar storm, also known as geomagnetic stormis a phenomenon that occurs when the Sun emits a large amount of charged particles and electromagnetic radiation that interacts with the Earth’s magnetic field and the upper atmosphere of the Tierra.
Upon reaching the planet, these particles and radiation interact with its magnetic field, producing a series of effects. Among them, induced geomagnetic currents are generated on the Earth’s surface, which can interfere with electrical networks, communication systems and cause auroras at high and low latitudes.
Although solar storms are common events, most are moderate intensity and its impact on land infrastructure is limited. However, scientists point out that there is a possibility that a storm much more powerful than endanger the survival of humanity.
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While researchers say predicting exactly when this phenomenon will occur is challenging, it is estimated that they can occur approximately every 11 years, which is the length of a solar cycle.
“Eleven years is a mean periodicity, which implies that it is determined by averaging the individual periods of all solar cycles observed in the modern era,” notes Dr. Nandi. And he adds: “The individual cycles may vary in duration from 9 to 14 years”.
Scientists build on clues gathered by Swiss astronomer Max Waldmeier almost 100 years ago to make the best estimates of when solar maximum will arrive. It was in 1935 when the researcher discovered that the faster the sunspot cycle, the stronger their force.
RV / Gi
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