New York, January 26, 2026
Gold Hits Record $5,145, But Is This Rally Built on Sand?
Table of Contents
A surge in gold prices to a new high is raising eyebrows, with some analysts questioning whether the rally is sustainable given a recent data gap and geopolitical factors.
- Gold futures reached a record $5,145.39 on January 26, 2026, a nearly 19% jump in 25 days.
- A data gap in October 2025 CFTC speculative net positions raises concerns about the rally’s foundation.
- The recent surge mirrors patterns from April 2025, suggesting a potential pullback.
- Geopolitical events, like the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, have fueled the rally, but underlying drivers are weak.
Gold futures soared to a record $5,145.39 on January 26, 2026, marking a substantial 19% increase over the past 25 days. But is this impressive climb backed by solid fundamentals, or is it a “blind bullish bounce,” as some traders are suggesting? Understanding the forces at play—and what’s missing—is crucial for investors.
A Data Gap Clouds the Picture
Analyzing daily charts and CFTC speculative net positions from September 19, 2025, to January 23, 2026, reveals a curious anomaly: a complete absence of data for October 2025. Despite this gap, gold futures still managed to test a peak of $4,398.75 on October 20, 2025, following a 14.35% rally that began on October 2. This initial surge, however, proved unsustainable, with prices quickly falling to a low of $3,894.48 within eight days.
CFTC data resumed on November 19, 2025, showing net speculative positions at 252.9K, declining to 232K and 203.9K in subsequent weeks. A slight recovery to 240.7K by the end of December coincided with another upward trend, pushing gold futures to $4,557.23 on December 29, 2025, before a 5.27% single-day drop to $4,308.52.
Echoes of April—And a Warning Sign?
The current rally shares similarities with those seen since April 2025, particularly in terms of the angle of elevation, duration, and the influence of geopolitical concerns. However, the January 2026 rally, with its 64-degree angle, is reminiscent of the April 2025 surge (a 73-degree angle) which entered a selling zone on April 22, 2025. As of January 26, 2026, gold futures, after hitting $5,145.39, are trading at $5,126.44, suggesting a similar fate may be looming.
What level of support will gold need to hold to continue its upward trajectory? A breakdown below the immediate support level of $5,022 could signal a steeper decline. Further weakness below the 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $4,854 would likely accelerate the sell-off, potentially testing the 20-day EMA at $4,679.42 this week.
Geopolitics and a Gap-Up Start to the Year
The year began with a gap-up opening on January 2, 2026, triggered by the unexpected capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife by U.S. President Donald Trump. This event propelled gold futures from lows of $4,322.93 to their current levels. However, the rally appears largely detached from fundamental economic drivers, increasing the risk of a correction.
With exhaustion risks outweighing genuine catalysts, a heavy sell-off could occur at any time. Investors should proceed with caution and closely monitor key support levels.
Disclaimer: This analysis is based solely on observations and should not be considered financial advice. Readers are advised to take any position in gold at their own risk.
