Goldman Sachs projects India’s economy will grow at a 7.2 percent rate in 2027, maintaining a faster pace than China’s estimated 4.5 percent expansion.
The global investment bank’s latest Global Economic Outlook 2027 report anticipates that easing energy costs and robust artificial intelligence investment will support global growth despite persistent fiscal pressures.
Global economy grows slightly as energy prices stabilize
The report estimates the global economy will grow by 2.8 percent in 2027, a slight increase from the 2.7 percent growth anticipated for 2026. Analysts expect the downward pressure on energy prices seen in 2026 to stabilize, providing some relief to global markets.
“We expect GDP growth in 2027 to remain solid, but not extraordinary. However, many of the factors that shaped global growth in 2026 will appear in a somewhat different form in 2027,” said Jan Hatzius, chief economist and head of Goldman Sachs Research.
Commodity experts at the bank predict that Brent crude oil prices will decline to $78 per barrel by the end of 2027. Bank analysts said that China’s export performance remains robust, which may further bolster the country’s trade surplus.
Artificial intelligence investment surge
Artificial intelligence is identified as a primary driver for economic activity, with total global investment projected to reach $1.8 trillion in 2027, up from $1.1 trillion in 2026. This spending, particularly on hardware in the United States, is expected to contribute 0.4 percentage points to global GDP growth in 2027.
“Even if some slowdown is expected, it will still have a significant impact on GDP growth,” Hatzius said regarding the potential for fluctuations in AI investment growth.
Regional growth outlooks
While India’s growth is expected to moderate from 7.9 percent in 2026 to 7.2 percent in 2027, it remains above the 6.8 percent consensus estimate among market observers. China’s growth is forecast at 4.5 percent, slightly higher than the 4.4 percent consensus, supported by exports despite domestic consumption challenges. The United States economy is projected to grow by 2.4 percent in 2027, up from 2.3 percent the previous year.
Moody's revises India GDP growth forecast upward
Separate from the Goldman Sachs report, Moody’s Ratings recently revised its forecast for India’s GDP growth for the 2026-27 fiscal year to 7 percent, up from 6.5 percent.
Slowdown impacts GDP growth significantly
“Despite the expected slowdown, its impact on GDP growth will be quite significant,” according to the Goldman Sachs report regarding the broader economic climate.