Goldman Sachs has raised its economic forecast to warn that artificial intelligence could replace up to 9% of American workers, translating to roughly 15 million jobs. Chief economist Jan Hatzius cautioned that an economic downturn could accelerate automation and deepen workforce reductions across developed economies.
Goldman Sachs Raises Replacement Estimates to 15 Million Workers
Goldman Sachs now estimates that up to 9% of workers will be forced out of their current roles as workplaces transition toward advanced software and machine capabilities. The projected toll of automated systems on the labor market continues to climb as economic models are updated.
That figure marks an upward revision from previous assessments. Jan Hatzius, the bank’s chief economist, previously estimated that artificial intelligence might replace 6% to 7% of the American workforce.
The updated baseline assumes a 15% boost to productivity across the United States and other developed economies.
Economic Downturns Could Accelerate Workplace Automation
Fewer than a quarter of companies are currently integrating these systems into daily workflows, meaning corporate adoption remains in its early stages. Macroeconomic conditions threaten to speed up the transition.
Historical data from past downturns suggests that cooling business cycles often prompt firms to lean more heavily on efficiency measures.
The financial institution noted that the overall friction in the labor market stems from a dual pressure: active job shedding alongside a slowdown in new hiring. Analysts emphasize that the primary risk to the unemployment rate comes from direct layoffs rather than a simple freeze in recruitment.
Our analysis in our baseline forecast of next year’s growth near potential suggests that the impact of AI on the labor market will likely build gradually rather than hit the labor market suddenly,
Hatzius wrote in a report detailed by Business Insider Taiwan.
AI Drives Corporate Downsizing for Entry-Level White-Collar Roles
Researchers view entry-level white-collar positions as particularly susceptible to automated displacement.
Across the economy, artificial intelligence was cited as the explicit reason for 21% of all announced staff reductions, cementing automation as a leading driver of corporate downsizing.