2024-09-06 10:23:08
Friday, September 6, 2024, 12:23
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The nightmare of seeing a liter bottle of extra virgin olive oil close to ten euros, or even above, seems to be nearing the end, according to the well-known economist Gonzalo Bernardos. This professor from the University of Barcelona explains on his website that after two bad olive harvests, an “unprecedented situation”, as he describes it, a “record” harvest is now expected.
To explain in a simple way why the extra virgin olive oil has risen, among other things, just look at the figures from the last three harvests. On 21/22 – the season starts in October – 1,493,000 tons have been registered. That is the final path to a good harvest. Starting from the next season, the figure dropped to 663,000 tons and this year the improvement was negligible with 765,362 tons. Two consecutive bad harvests have not been seen in at least “half a century,” Bernardos said.
How does oil storage work? An economist explains it simply. «As a rule, bad advertising is followed by good, and vice versa. After the first, the olive tree is at rest and is more fruitful than usual. On the other hand, after the second, your productivity decreases, as it shows some signs of fatigue. So, why in the 23/24 season was the harvest as bad as the previous year? Due to climate, another key factor.
«To get a high increase in production, it is not enough for the trees to rest a lot, but a good climate is important. First, the loss of drought, especially in Andalusia, because it is the main production area in the world. And secondly, the presence of a lot of good rain in the spring (stage of flower appearance),” reported Bernardos.
And unlike what happened in previous years, this time there are conditions for the harvest, which will start next October, to be good. What’s more, Bernardos assures that if the weather helps as it was in the spring and the rains, the olive harvest this fall will break the record of the 18/19 season when 1,789,000 tons arrived. If not, the harvest will be fairly good because “it will be double what was obtained in the 2022/23 season (664,034 tons) and it will be close to the double expected in the 2023/24 season,” the economist predicted. .
If we finally have a rainy autumn and there is a record, “the price of extra virgin olive oil will decrease and drop from 10 euros in May to five,” the economist announced. This collapse in the price of oil will come from January, when the companies responsible for supplying the olives collected in October and November send the production to the supermarkets.
“The market situation will take a 180 degree turn. A difference that will lead to a record production of olive oil in Spain and a sharp reduction in its price next year,” concluded Gonzalo Bernardos.
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