2023-05-14 00:04:07
Sunday, May 14, 2023, 00:04
The wage agreement reached last Wednesday between employers and unions has served to “please everyone” and also will not lead to an increase in inflation. This is what Gonzalo Bernardos, professor of Economics at the University of Barcelona, believes.
The popular and media economist spoke on the Onda Cero program ‘Julia en la Onda’ about the agreement between CEOE, Cepyme and the two main unions -UGT and CC OO- to raise wages by 10% in the next three years: 4 % in 2023 and 3% in each of the following two years.
This increase is not binding, but it will serve as a reference when negotiating many agreements, especially those of medium and large companies.
Bernardos has not been surprised by the pact “because there are many interests” in which it is signed and “everyone is happy.” The CEOE because, “if he signs now, he is convinced that he can get better salary conditions -for his interests- than if the PP governs, as they believe will happen.”
It also favors the interests of the unions because “what they want is to secure good conditions that imply a change of criteria in the negotiations.” Despite the fact that they have had to “swallow” giving up a retroactive increase of 5.3% in purchasing power lost in 2022, “in exchange they have imposed a salary review clause”, which implies an additional increase of 1% if inflation exceeds the agreed increases.
“Job stability” for the government on duty
The Government also benefits because “it gives job stability.” Even, he believes, the PP is good for him, because “if he wins (the next elections) he will have two years of tranquility in relations with the unions.” “Therefore, everyone is happy,” he sums up.
Bernardos warns that, despite constituting a reference framework, the salary increase agreement “is not valid for all companies.” Those who do not have an agreement can take advantage of it. However, those that are not in a good economic situation “may drop” and apply lower increases.
In the case of large or medium-sized companies with their own agreement, the percentages agreed between employers and unions constitute “the minimum increase. And from there, higher increases are negotiated.
The professor of Economics at the University of Barcelona does not believe that this salary increase is going to cause an increase -or at least a stoppage in the deceleration- of prices. “If it were for wages, inflation would have been 2.7% on average in 2022, and it was 8.4%.”
In his opinion, if wages recover part of the lost purchasing power, “it is most likely that companies will earn less by margin, but much more by volume. Because, as families have more jobs and better wage increases, their purchasing power will increase. This would be reasonable.”
However, “if this doesn’t produce, we have a problem. And it is that we have certain sectors of the economy in which there is a lack of competitiveness.
In any case, he is convinced that the price of raw materials “will drop significantly this year, as we are already seeing with oil” so that inflation will drop in December “below 4%.”
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