2024-09-11 16:44:54
We talk about it a lot when it goes up, but less when it goes down. The price of a barrel of Brent, oil listed in London, however fell below 70 dollars for the first time since December 2021, Wednesday September 10. It was around $69.20 on Wednesday, September 11 , in the middle of the afternoon.
The decline has been nearly 24% over a year and 16% over the past six months. The trend is the same for the WTI barrel (West Texas Intermediate), which is the benchmark on the American continent.
The impact of the global economic downturn
The main reason for the decrease in oil prices is the global economic slowdown, especially in China and the United States, the two biggest consumers. Even OPEC, which is traditionally optimistic about crude oil demand, has revised its forecasts downward.
In its monthly report released on Wednesday, September 10, the organization estimates that global oil demand will increase by 2.03 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, while predicting a growth of 2.11 million bpd last month.
An abundant offer
Today, no known signal seems capable of raising the market. Even the suspension of Libyan exports at the end of August (1.5 million bpd), due to the political turmoil prevailing in the country, was not enough to raise prices again. Access to hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico also failed to change the trend, even though the region alone represents about half of the United States’ renewable energy.
The market also suffers from oversupply, with the development of new oil countries such as Guyana, and a significant increase in exports from certain countries, such as Brazil and especially the United States.
Faced with this situation, the OPEC + cartel (OPEC and ten other producing countries, such as Russia and Mexico) also left, at the beginning of September, increasing its production, in order to put 2.2 million barrels per day in circulation. , as provided for in the agreement they signed in May.
Profit is purchasing power
This drop in oil prices is obviously good news for consumers. According to data published by the Ministry of the Spirit Revolution, Monday September 9, the liter of diesel stands at € 1.6117, down eleven cents compared to the summer peak, mid-July, or even around € 1.50 in certain stations that have decided to make the oa flagship product. The liter of SP95-E10 is €1.7077 on average and that of SP98 €1.8144, a drop of eleven and twelve cents in less than two months.
The gain in purchasing power is important, first and foremost for low-income families who are struggling to make ends meet. A motorist now earns on average €6 per fill compared to mid-July, and €12 to €13 compared to the prices at the pump observed in the spring. For low-income couples with two cars, the saving is around a hundred euros per month.
This may take a while. In its latest economic report, published on Monday September 9, INSEE expects a barrel to be around $78 until the end of the year. A drop in oil prices is encouraging on the inflation front. It essentially explains why the rise in prices has just crossed the 2% mark at an annual rate.
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