2024-07-09 22:12:00
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Tomorrow the Government will try to take advantage of the reborn investors’ appetite for instruments that provide exchange coverage to accelerate the withdrawal of pesos from the market. The objective is clear: any exit scheme from the stocks (given the renewed problems facing the Central Bank to continue buying reserves) It relies on less liquidity in the market to reduce the potential demand for dollars when it decides to lift the restrictions.
The official bet in this regard was revealed as soon as the Ministry of Finance, under the leadership of Pablo Quirno, communicated the menu of options provided by the market, leaving it on the counter. seven instruments, an unusual amount since it faces an upcoming maturity of just $1.05 trillion due to the end of the Capitalization Letter (Lecap) S12L4 and, in addition, it has cash reserves to cover its payment make – if he wants – more than 10 times higher.
These are four Lecaps, with terms between 35 and 189 days offered without minimum or maximum issue rates, and three bonds that are adjustable according to the change registered in the official exchange rate (dollar-linked(b) without an interest coupon but committed to adding “floor” yields of -2% and 1% for those maturing in almost two and three years (TZV26 and TZV27, respectively), when the TZVD5 (which is included in the menu for reopening) trade with a yield of -6.5%.
“The Government seems to have taken note of the increase in demand for products linked dollarsince the offer announced for this week differs fundamentally from previous offers: in addition to offering them again They are the only ones with guaranteed minimum rates”, they noted from the consulting firm Outlier.
“We have to remember that Economía decided in the last offer (less than two weeks ago) to reject a good part of what it was offered to buy from TZVD5, which put the little it took by -8%. There is clearly a shift in focus: we interpret that the authorities have decided to stop discussing the increased demand for exchange coverage in order to direct a large part of it, which would help to decompress other parts such as the futures market,” a they explained in this regard.
In addition there are the “adaptations” that have been applied to Lecaps’ offer. “S16G4, S13S4 and S14O4 will bid price, and the TEM of the S17E5 (longest) will be determined in the bid. That said, Unlike previous offers, the Exchequer has not set a minimum rate for any of them, which makes sense given that the BCRA will soon start setting the rate for Monetary Regulatory Bills.”, they evaluated from Fasimex Valores.
These instruments are quoted with yields between 3 and 4.2% per month, for those instruments already on the market and due to mature in up to 90 days, “from which the S17E5 would appear to work valued by curve. in 4 .4%”, they noted.
“In all cases They are clearly higher returns than those from passive stores which are also achieved with Gross Income (IIBB). In addition, they did not set maximum amounts in the issue, indicating that they seek to accelerate the disarmament of the repos or encourage banks – as some have already done – to exercise some of the put options (put) that they accumulated they have several bonds in their portfolio to claim Lifts and ensure that the terms of those assets are kept low. All this taking into account that it is known that the Government has its sights on these instruments and that it could eventually promote an exchange to the put with an immediate exercise aimed at the Boncers with maturities in 2025 and 2027,” noted the report from the team led by economist Adrián Yarde Buller.
In addition, it is worth remembering that the BCRA relaxed the rules last week so that banks can have these papers and negotiate them more fluidly on the secondary market, that is, it resolved the way to increase this demand even though the banks were exposed to the public. already exceeding prudential limits in the sector.
The official fear of the possible issuance of pesos arising from the application of these guarantees -favored banks even as this Government encouraged demand for bonds offered in primary tenders – revealed again today when the president himself, Javier Milei, mentioned them again, as a necessary preliminary step to raise the stocks.while answering questions he received on social network X before attending the July 9 parade.
It is also worth remembering that the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, mentioned even days ago at a press conference the disarmament of the stocks – for which he did not give a date – as a crucial moment that would allow the official plan to move forward. to the third stage, which would be the “growth”. Given the severity of the current recession, and its impact on the labor market, the growing implication for economic agents in this regard is understandable.
Conocé The Trust Project
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