2023-09-01 02:05:43
© Reuters. Esplanade of Ministries with the National Congress in the background, in Brasilia 07/04/2010 REUTERS/Ricardo Moraes
By Bernardo Caram
BRASILIA (Reuters) – The government sent the 2024 budget to Congress this Thursday, forecasting a primary surplus of 2.8 billion reais next year, a balance that relies on revenues of 168.5 billion reais from new collection actions. proposals in recent months, including measures not yet approved, which raised questions from specialists.
Among the actions that still depend on approval are estimated gains of 35.3 billion reais with the measure that regulates the decision of the Superior Court of Justice (STJ) that limited federal subsidies originating from state tax incentives, in addition to 10.4 billion reais of the bill that proposes the end of the mechanism of interest on own capital (JCP) — both proposals edited this Thursday.
There are still 97.9 billion reais in recovery of Carf credits, after approval of a project by Congress that restores the casting vote in the collegiate that judges tax resources, and 13.3 billion reais expected with the provisional measure, edited this week , which establishes periodic collection of Income Tax for exclusive investment funds.
Another 11.6 billion relate to measures to tax online sports betting, regulate purchases on foreign retail sites and tax offshore funds.
The value proposed for the primary result of the central government (which does not include spending on interest on the public debt), if materialized, will meet the target established by the economic team to reach a zero primary deficit next year.
The rule of the new fiscal framework, enacted this week, still establishes a tolerance band of 0.25% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for more or less than the target, which will allow the government to operate its accounts between a gap of 29 billion reais and a surplus of the same amount.
Achieving a zero deficit is a promise made by the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, in an attempt to restore the country’s fiscal credibility and enable a reduction in interest rates and stimulate growth. The task, according to him, will not be trivial.
“I do not deny the challenge, but if we are not committed to consistent results, we will not obtain the best economic results”, he said in an interview this Thursday afternoon.
DOUBTS
This is the first Budget fully prepared by the new administration of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, although the 2023 accounts have been reconstructed with the Transition PEC, already with intense participation and incorporation of plans by the PT’s team, after the electoral victory of the last year.
“There is a risk, as the government is counting on uncertain revenues. That is why the ministerial reform will gain even more importance. It is quite challenging to zero the deficit next year”, evaluated the chief economist at Órama, Alexandre Espirito Santo.
In the evaluation of economist Marcos Mendes, one of the creators of the now extinct spending ceiling, after the approval of strong increases in expenses by the new government, the responsibility of obtaining the revenues to pay them was left to the Executive.
“The performance of the Minister of Finance and the President of the Republic will be measured by the ability to raise these revenues. Congressmen, in turn, lose little in electoral terms if these revenues do not materialize, ”he said.
Former Treasury Secretary and economist at ASA Investments, Jeferson Bittencourt, said that the volume of new measures needed to present the Budget with zero deficit shows how far the natural trajectory of revenue is from the framework expenditure trajectory.
“Considering that a significant adjustment on the expenditure side is very unlikely, there are a number of doubts about the viability of this package of measures”, he pointed out.
For Bittencourt, part of the doubts is related to the short period to approve and put the initiatives into practice. He assesses that the government also expects very high volumes of revenue in actions that do not depend on Congress, such as gains from renegotiating debts with the tax authorities.
INCOME AND EXPENSES
In the text of the budget project, the economic team also estimated that it will raise 113.6 billion reais in 2024 with the exploitation of natural resources, 41.4 billion reais with dividends and 44.4 billion reais with concessions — the latter with large discrepancy in relation to the expected data for 2023, of 9.2 billion reais.
The piece provides for a limit of 2.093 trillion reais for spending in 2024, which represents a real increase of 1.7% compared to 2023.
Around 32 billion reais in spending will still be conditioned to a later approval by Congress. The device, overthrown in the vote on the fiscal framework and which is still included in another budget project in progress, allows for an increase in expenditure in 2024 if inflation rises by the end of this year.
For next year, the government forecast an expenditure of 69.7 billion reais in investments. The value is 1.2 billion above the floor of 0.6% of GDP established in the fiscal framework.
When defining the parameters for the project, the government slightly reduced the projected GDP growth in 2024, from 2.34% estimated in the LDO project to 2.26%.
IN the text, the minimum wage from January 2024 was forecast at 1,421 reais, a value that may still change depending on the variation in inflation. Currently, the minimum wage is R$1,320.
(By Bernardo Caram)
#Government #proposes #primary #surplus #BRL #billion #reinforcement #uncertain #revenues #Reuters