2023-11-22 20:05:35
© Reuters. 1 real coins 10/15/2010 REUTERS/Bruno Domingos
By Bernardo Caram
BRASILIA (Reuters) – The Ministries of Planning and Finance projected this Wednesday that the central government will close 2023 with a primary deficit of 177.4 billion reais, equivalent to 1.7% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a worse result than predicted in September, a loss of 141.4 billion reais (1.3% of GDP), according to the bimonthly revenue and expenditure report.
The document also points out that, when using the “below the line” calculation methodology, used by the Central Bank and which takes into account changes in the public debt stock, the deficit forecast in 2023 jumps to 203.4 billion reais, or 1.9% of GDP.
The report also shows that the government will need to increase the blocking of ministries’ funds by around 1.1 billion reais this year to comply with fiscal rules.
According to the report, this year’s Budget has an excess of expenses of 5 billion reais in relation to the spending ceiling limit, which continues with an expenditure rule valid in 2023 even after the approval of the new fiscal framework. The value is higher than the approximately 3.8 billion reais indicated in September.
The data show that the increase in expectations for the deficit was driven by a drop of 14 billion reais in the forecast for net revenue, already discounting transfers to regional governments, to 1.901 trillion reais. The forecast for total expenditure, in turn, grew by 21.9 billion reais compared to the estimate made two months ago, reaching 2.078 trillion reais.
For this year, the Budget estimates a fiscal deficit of 228.1 billion reais, a deficit that the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, had promised to reduce to a level close to a deficit of 100 billion reais.
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