2023-04-17 06:28:12
Cyclical phenomenon or structural trend? The question agitates the professionals of the commercial real estate, worried vis-a-vis the plummeting of the market. In the first quarter, the amount of investments reached 3.3 billion euros, a drop of 35% over one year, according to data from Immostat, the group of the main consulting companies in the sector.
Over the whole of 2022, the decline was limited to 2% (25.5 billion euros committed), thanks to the finalization of a few operations which had been delayed by the health crisis. But in the last quarter, the market plunged 52%. “The start of the year is not good, but we can still hope for a catch-up in the coming months”, tempers Olivier Taupin, France director of the business real estate specialist Cushman & Wakefield.
A stock at its highest
Meanwhile, in Île-de-France, which concentrates around 80% of transactions, demand over the first three months of the year fell by 39%, over one year, with 317,400 square meters of office space newly rented or sold. to an occupant.
A level never reached since 2002, if we exclude the period of the first confinement in 2020. And the office space available in Île-de-France has never been so high, with 4.4 million square meters. “The vacancy rate is now 7.8% in the Paris region, i.e. its highest level since 1997. In certain tertiary centers, such as La Défense, it is now close to 15 and 20% in the 1st ring north of Paris.», points out Knight Frank in his latest economic report. In Saint-Ouen, the vacancy rate reached 25%, and even 35% in Pantin.
Paris will always be Paris
Conversely, it has never been so weak in Paris. Many companies are looking to return to the capital, helping to drive up prices per square meter. «Since the Covid, the gap has widened between Paris and the first crown. All companies are looking for a more central location to attract and retain talent, even if it means setting up in smaller premises», estimates Guillaume Raquillet, director of office activity at Knight Frank.
The American Cisco thus left Issy-les-Moulineaux for the 8th arrondissement, with 40% less surface area. Companies that were in the second ring are also returning to the first ring.
Demand decreases with telework
Everything combines to contract the business real estate market, which is by nature very sensitive to the economic situation. Among investors, this sector is less popular than before and has somewhat lost the safe haven status it had in recent years. With the rise in interest rates, fund managers are now seeking to diversify their portfolios. Buyers borrow more and wait for sellers to revise their financial claims.
Added to this is the development of telework. “It reduces by about 20 to 25% the space requirements of companies that want to consume less office space, but better, explains Olivier Taupin. Business real estate is undergoing a revolution by moving closer to the codes of the hotel industry, by offering concierge services, gyms or rest rooms. »
The transformation of offices into housing resurfaces
This demand for better quality offices meeting the latest environmental standards should accelerate the obsolescence of many buildings and increase the stock. In 2023, 760,000 square meters of new or restructured offices should arrive on the Ile-de-France market. This is less than in previous years (960,000 in 2022, and 1.2 million in 2021), but it is still a lot compared to current demand.
Too ? «Nearly two-thirds of the new square meters expected this year are still available, adding to the 420,000 completed last year and still available for rent,” recalls Knight Frank, emphasizing that the second-hand supply remains very abundant.
The question of the future of these goods which will no longer be able to find takers is posed. “Today there is a reflection on their change of use, whereas we did not talk about it five years ago”, recognizes Guillaume Raquillet. They could be transformed into housing, but probably not everywhere.
Other avenues appear, such as the creation of service residences for students or the elderly. Another revolution awaits the profession.
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Slightly lower rents
In the first trimester, according to figures from the Immostat group, which are a benchmark, the price per square meter in office property in Île-de-France fell by 2%, to €7,705 per square meter.
The average headline rent (excluding discounts) excluding taxes for new leases in Île-de-France amounted to €422 per square meter per year for new or restructured premises, and €427 for second-hand premises, down slightly after record levels reached in 2022. According to Immostat, the discounts amount to nearly 25%.
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