Now it’s official: Federal Minister of Agriculture Cem Özdemir wants to be the new Prime Minister of Baden-Württemberg. Can that work?
One thing can be said without exaggeration: In the following year, an era will come to an end in Baden-Württemberg: Winfried Kretschmann will no longer be running for the office of Prime Minister. He will be the father of the country for 15 years and he will be re-elected successfully twice. For his party, the Greens, he became the first prime minister in 2011 – to this day the 76-year-old is the only one.
It was widely expected that Cem Özdemir would want to succeed. It has been clear since last Friday: the current Federal Agriculture Minister will lead the Baden-Württemberg Greens in the 2026 state elections. In a video on Instagram, the 58-year-old unpacks a package and pulls out a T-shirt. The inscription: “Cem 2Ö26”. Ö like Özdemir – “We can start now,” he says to the camera in Swabian.
For many Greens, the minister is the ideal choice for a successor in Baden-Württemberg: The former party leader has experience, is considered a very pragmatic Green, like Kretschmann – and is popular in Baden-Württemberg: In the 2021 federal election, Özdemir won his constituency in Stuttgart with 40 percent of the votes.
“This will be Cem’s biggest challenge”
If the plan works, Özdemir would have achieved something significant: he would be the first child guest worker in the office. His parents came to Germany in the 1960s and met in Bad Urach. Özdemir repeatedly describes himself as an “Anatolian Swabian”.
However, it is all but ruled out that Özdemir can defend the office of Prime Minister for the Greens. “This is Cem’s biggest challenge,” wrote Reinhard Bütikofer, former leader of the Green Party, on Twitter.
Özdemir faces three huge problems. Today’s starting point is different, the mood has changed: in the 2021 state election, Kretschmann received a record 32.6 percent of the vote. But now the Greens are only at 18 percent in the polls. This is still much better than the national trend, but in Baden-Württemberg the Greens have now lost ground to the CDU as well: the current junior partner in Stuttgart is clearly ahead with 34 percent.
A minister in the traffic light is unpopular
The “traffic light factor” is likely to play a big role in this. The traffic light is more distrustful than any previous coalition; When asked which coalition government should govern the country, zero percent of respondents in a survey in mid-September named the traffic light. The problem for Özdemir: As a minister, he is a significant representative of this coalition.
Of course, he tried several times to separate himself, for example during the farmers’ protests at the beginning of the year. The Minister of Agriculture notes that some of the cuts to subsidies for farmers have been weakened or withdrawn. But will it be found that way? Özdemir and the Baden-Württemberg Greens will probably hope that the memory of the traffic lights will fade for some Baden-Württemberg residents in 2026.
It is not yet clear whether Özdemir can continue to benefit from the “Kretschmann effect”. The fact that Kretschmann became Prime Minister of Baden-Württemberg in 2011, until then the CDU’s home state, had a lot to do with the heated atmosphere surrounding the Stuttgart 21 major project and the unfortunate actions of CDU Prime Minister Stefan . Maps.
Above all, shortly before the vote, a disaster occurred in Japan that shocked the world: a tsunami triggered cores in several reactor blocks in Fukushima. The feeling that the Greens might be right with their dire warnings about nuclear power helped the party at the ballot box.
Is there a “Kretschmann effect” for Cem Özdemir too?
Kretschmann moved into the Villa Reitzenstein, the seat of government in Stuttgart – and was confirmed in office twice. But his re-election may have had less to do with the fact that he is a Green. But rather with his personality. The former teacher is often a conservative in the body of a Green politician. There is repeated criticism within our own party that green politics sometimes falls by the wayside: in Baden-Württemberg, for example, there are even fewer wind turbines than in Bavaria – and that’s about the father of states green for a long time.
Özdemir will probably have the best chances by following Kretschmann’s line. It means a lot to him that “Winfried Kretschmann fully supports my decision,” Özdemir writes in a personal statement about his candidacy on a newly created website. “For both of us, the interests of the country always come first.” There are definitely similarities too. Both are assigned to the Realo wing of the Greens, are considered more business friendly and sometimes go against the party line.
Kretschmann and Özdemir both want to tighten the issue of migration, which is important to many citizens. Özdemir recently criticized in a guest article in “FAZ” that in Berlin his daughter was often “stared at uncomfortably or sexualized by men with a migrant background.” This angered some Greens, especially from the left wing. Pragmatists like Kretschmann and Özdemir repeatedly ask their party to be more clear and strict on the issue.
But it seems uncertain whether the similarities in content are enough for Özdemir to take office as Kretschmann’s quasi-natural successor. According to a survey, 55 percent of people in Baden-Württemberg think that Özdemir is unlikely to become the next prime minister. Only 23 percent believed he could win the election.
What is certain is that the Greens have rejected many since they took part in government in the federal government, for some they are enemy number 1. In February, the Greens had to cancel a political event with for Ash Wednesday in Biberach. , Baden-Württemberg – because of aggressive protests in front of the hall.
So far the party has done little to oppose this. For Özdemir, it will therefore be important to see how his party will reorganize itself after the current dual leadership withdraws from the party leadership. How she enters the federal election campaign – and how she will perform there. For Özdemir, this could be a good or bad sign: a few months later, in the spring of 2026, Baden-Württemberg’s favorite candidate will get down to business.
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