After a decline of 0.2% in the first quarter, France returned to growth from April to June, its economy recording a more dynamic rebound than expected in its GDP which grew by 0.5% in this second quarter. , according to data published Friday, July 29 by INSEE. In their latest forecasts, the National Institute of Statistics and the Banque de France respectively forecast growth of 0.25% and 0.2% between April and June.
The good performance of the French economy in the second quarter can be explained both by a clearly positive contribution of foreign trade to growth and a less marked drop in household consumption than in the first quarter.
According to this first estimate of the national accounts, which will have to be confirmed at the end of August by INSEE, imports fell by 0.6% in the second quarter, while exports jumped by 0.8%.
Responsible tourism
These latter have been “driven in particular by transport services (+6.3% after +5.0% in the first quarter) and spending by foreign travelers in France (+8.6% after +5.0%)”details INSEE. “Conversely, exports of goods fell back (–0.6% after +1.4%), particularly in transport equipment and agri-food”explains the institute.
As for consumption, the traditional driver of the French economy, it remains negative for purchases of goods (–1.3%), but purchases of services are on the rise again (+1.5%). Two contradictory trends leading to an overall decline of 0.2% in household consumption in the second quarter.
Better than IMF expectations
With the figures published on Friday, INSEE estimates the growth overhang of the French economy at 2.5% for the year 2022. A figure in line with the government’s annual growth forecast, and slightly higher than the expectations of the Banque de France or the IMF (+2.3%).
The INSEE data are published the day after the publication of the figures for American growth in the second quarter (–0.9% at an annualized rate after –1.6% in the 1st quarter), which technically brought the country into recession. In Europe, growth estimates for the euro zone and several large countries of the Old Continent are also due to be released on Friday morning.