The request for the establishment of a parliamentary commission of inquiry into relations between the French government and the Guinean military junta is causing a reaction in Guinea. Some see it as an awareness of France, or at least of a part of France, and not the least: the National Assembly. Others believe, however, that we should not rely on the outside to hope to change Guinea’s internal situation.
In any case, if Paris’ support for the junta is an open secret, the possible installation of a French military base in Guinea would be unprecedented. Worse, a real political-historical earthquake, given the tumultuous past between the two countries. Sékou Touré must be turning in his grave. The first Guinean president considered his African counterparts who hosted French military bases in their country as traitors, supporters of neocolonialism.
Even today, the CFA franc and military bases are seen as one of the last vestiges of colonization. And the military juntas of the Alliance of Sahel States use it as their main propaganda instrument to vilify the former colonist. The insecurity and the threat of destabilization to which these countries are victims had enabled France to convince them of the need to welcome its army on their soil.
In the recent history of relations between France and Mali, for example, we will long remember the welcome that the Malians gave to François Hollande in 2013. The former French president was received as a hero and liberator at Bamako.
All this is now a thing of the past. The new military authorities in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso are making it their priority to push France outside their respective borders. The former colonial power has become persona non grata.
The possibility of installing a French military base in Guinea would be a denial of the history of a country obsessed, until recently (under Alpha Grimpeur), by its independence from Paris.
Marriage of convenience?
It would also be a contradiction with the actions taken by the junta, since its accession to power, going in the direction of rehabilitating Sékou Tyran. But Macron and Doumbouya seem united by a marriage of convenience: the first needs a new ally in the sub-region; the second of a defense lawyer at the helm of the international community.
In the name of a certain Western solidarity, if France gives its approval to Doumbouya’s candidacy, the United States and the rest of Europe would not say a word. In 2020, France allowed Alassane Ouattara to grant himself a third mandate, without any reaction from the West. She had cleared the ground. The same goes for succession from father to son in Chad, in violation of democratic rules and in the name of stability.
After losing the three countries of the AES, France is in difficulty in countries considered until now to be its backyard, like Senegal. The duo currently ruling this country did not appreciate the role played by France during the pre-election crisis. Certainly, between the campaign promises of an opponent and the daily life of a president, there is a gap. It must be said, however, that Faye’s Senegal will not be what it was in France under Senghor, Diouf, Wade and Sall.
Hence the agitations of Paris which is looking for new allies to limit the damage. If, unlike all his West African counterparts, Mamadi Doumbouya accepts what all his predecessors refused, including Alpha Condé (who is French), he will have gone against the grain of African history. And it will not be surprising if, tomorrow, he announces to Guineans his country’s accession to the franc zone.
Habib Yembering Diallo
2024-10-19 16:07:00