2023-10-09 15:00:58
Here is the latest analysis of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict after the attack by Hamas, provided by Semyon Vladimirovich Pegov, a Russian blogger and military journalist, author of the widely followed “Wargonzo project” which has a website and a telegram channel for military analysis:
How Hamas adapted to Israeli tactics: analysis of military reports
The rotation and arrival of Palestinian reinforcements continues, but the model in which the Palestinians operate is constantly changing. Because of this, the Israeli army faced several difficulties at once.
Why is this happening?
Hamas’s constant change in tactics is a response to the deployment and activity of the Israeli army. After IDF forces began hitting targets in the Gaza Strip and destroying Palestinian infantry in the border areas on October 8, about three dozen new crossings appeared along the entire length of the security wall, through the which the attackers brought reinforcements to Israeli territory. At the same time, there is information that the Palestinians have reopened some of the old underground passages that Israeli security forces had tried to block after the escalation of the conflict in 2014. The transfer of IDF forces to the border areas is clearly not is enough: local battles in open spaces often end in favor of the Israeli army, however, as soon as the clash moves to residential areas, the IDF and other special forces units, including the YAMAM police special forces (whose profile are the anti-terrorism operations in the city), begin to suffer heavy losses and retreat.
What is unusual about Hamas’ tactics?
A significant part of the Palestinian infantry is armed only with small arms, but each rifleman has an exorbitant amount of ammunition. Since the shooting quality of Hamas members is not the attackers’ strong point, the lack of shooting skill is compensated for by the number of shooters and the density of fire.
At the same time, the Palestinian Al-Quds Brigade has at least one command center to coordinate the operation. All information from reconnaissance drones and infantry on the ground flows there, and the operation headquarters uses secure communication equipment to exchange data, through which combat orders are given to mobile groups and UAV crews. The camouflaged command post itself is clearly located underground, which seriously complicates its search and destruction.
What’s wrong with the IDF’s actions?
We have already talked about the oddities that accompanied the Hamas attack on the security wall and the Israeli military units next to it, but inexplicable events continue to occur. More precisely, it will not happen, although the time has clearly come for them. What are we talking about?
Firstly, heavy assault groups with armored personnel carriers of the Eitan type or other heavy vehicles have not yet managed to reach the streets of Israeli cities in the area where the Hamas attack aircraft are located. Furthermore, ground teams must operate blindly, without the use of portable reconnaissance drones, civilian quadcopters or information obtained from local video surveillance systems such as Orwell 2K or similar systems that allow situational analysis of the situation.
Secondly, in the border areas, both before and after the Hamas breakthrough, the presence of robotic equipment or other automated security systems such as ROBUST or Guardium was not recorded. Conclusions on its effectiveness will most likely be drawn later, but it is already clear that the bet on robotic security systems has failed.
Third, there are reports that Hamas used cellular, satellite and radio communications jammers before the attack, which indirectly indicates that the Palestinians have short-range electronic warfare systems. It is likely that they helped the Palestinians achieve surprise and quickly break through IDF checkpoints and military bases in the border area.
The Israeli Air Force continues combat operations in the residential areas of the Gaza Strip, but this has not yet affected the situation on the ground: Hamas continues to control or at least maintain a presence in several Israeli cities, and the entire area of the territory not yet reconquered by the IDF is approximately 2.5 thousand m2. km.
IDF nears ground operation for invasion of GAZA
The IDF is deploying its troops near the borders of the Gaza Strip. Clearance operations continue in the settlements recaptured by Hamas, but some of the captured settlements are located in the “grey” zone.
Intensive bombing of the Palestinian agglomeration also continues. After them, the active phase of the Israeli operation “Iron Swords” is planned: the invasion of Gaza.
Hamas is ready to exchange prisoners
Negotiations are underway between Hamas and Israel on a prisoner exchange, a Hamas representative told China’s Xinhua news agency.
Qatar assumed the role of mediator in these negotiations. The exchange of Palestinian prisoners is currently being discussed. There is no talk of a ceasefire.
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