2023-11-14 18:12:45
The projections of the eighth annual report Countdown on Health and Climate Change (Countdown on health and climate change) of the magazine The Lancet demonstrate that continuing to delay action against the climate crisis seriously threatens the health of the world’s population. In this scenario it is likely that the Mortality attributable to heat increases 4.7 times to 2050.
“Health systems are experiencing increasing stress and failure to adapt equitably means that many populations are left unprotected in the face of climate change. Paradoxically, “those who have contributed minimally to this crisis are the ones who are disproportionately more exposed,” they jointly declare to SINC. Rachel Lowe, Martín Lotto Batista and Kim van Daalenresearchers from Barcelona Supercomputing Center – National Supercomputer Center (BSC-CNS), institution that leads the European edition of the report.
Lancet Countdown It also points out that inaction is costing lives and affecting livelihoods. In 2022, the population was exposed, on average, to 86 days of extreme temperatures that posed a risk to their health, of which 60% were at least twice as likely to occur, due to human-caused climate change.
Health systems are increasingly stressed and failing to adapt equitably means many populations are left unprotected in the face of climate change.
Rachel Lowe, Martín Lotto Batista and Kim van Daalen, from the BSC-CNS
“This report not only expands the indicators of previous reports, but also presents possible future scenarios that await us if immediate measures are not taken. With a global temperature increase of 1.14 ºC, the human casualties and the resulting damages grow rapidly, with impacts on daily life and survival on a global scale,” argue the BSC-CNS scientists.
The work has been carried out by 114 leading experts from 52 research institutions and UN agencies around the world. It is published on the eve of the United Nations Conference of the Parties (COP28) and presents 47 indicators with new and improved metrics on household air pollution, financing of the fossil fuel industry and the participation of international organizations in the health benefits of climate mitigation.
The situation is reaching a point of no return, with often unpredictable consequences. Health impacts have clearly increased
Jaime Martínez Urtaza, from the UAB
For Jaime Martínez Urtaza, scientist at the Autonomous University of Barcelona and co-author of the study: “It shows that the situation is reaching a point of no return, with often unpredictable consequences. The health impacts have clearly increased, and they will not be reduced unless CO2 emissions are reduced and the situation begins to be controlled. If not, we will reach a time when health systems may collapse and the necessary services will not be able to be provided.”
Those responsible for the situation
The authors of the work consider it “negligence” that governments, companies and banks continue to invest money in the oil and gas industry. They warn that, without strong and rapid mitigation measures, the health of humanity is in serious danger.
“With an issuance of 1,337 tons of carbon dioxide per second, we are not even close to reducing emissions fast enough to keep climate hazards within tolerable levels for our healthcare systems. “Every second we delay, the path to a more livable future becomes more difficult and adaptation increasingly costly,” he says. Marina Romanelloexecutive director of Lancet Countdown from University College London (United Kingdom).
With an emission of 1,337 tons of carbon dioxide per second, we are not even close to reducing emissions fast enough
Marina Romanello, University College London
Likewise, the report includes a new section dedicated to the regional level that highlights that the health impacts of climate change lead to different and unequal experiences. Experts point out that an equitable energy transition offers an opportunity to reduce the health inequalityas well as improving the health and well-being of all people.
The BSC-CNS team will play a crucial role in the creation of the next regional report Lancet Countdown Europe, scheduled for April 2024. “Last year we published a specific report on Europe that indicates that the impact is uneven between regions. For example, the south tends to suffer more from diseases associated with heat waves, forest fires and droughts. In the update we expand our monitoring to other health impacts, such as diseases transmitted by ticks and leishmaniasisamong others,” they point out.
Current and future lives hang in the balance
Right now, the planet is on track to reach a warming of 2.7 °C by the year 2100. Additionally, energy-related emissions broke a record in 2022. “It is a macabre reminder that the pace and scale of mitigation efforts we have seen so far have been woefully inadequate to safeguard people’s health and safety.” “, he assures Romanello.
The authors maintain that these crude findings should serve as a driver for urgent measures. “We can still have hope,” says the executive director. “The fact that COP28 focuses on health is a unique opportunity to achieve commitment and action.”
In 2023, the planet experienced the highest global temperatures in the last 100,000 years, with all continents breaking their records
In 2023, the planet experienced the higher global temperatures of the last 100,000 years, and all continents broke their records. All over the world, people were exposed to deadly dangers. Added to this is the increasingly destructive nature of extreme climate events, which put water security and food production at risk.
Along the same lines, the change in weather patterns accelerates the transmission of deadly infectious diseases. For example, rising ocean temperatures have made the planet’s coastal area conducive to the spread of bacteria. Vibrio, which can cause illness and even death in humans. This situation particularly threatens Europe, where the coastal area conducive to its has increased by 142 km per year. Martínez Urtaza works on the study of this bacteria.
“We are facing one crisis after another,” warns Georgiana Gordon-Strachandirector of the regional center for small island developing states of Lancet Countdown.
In the face of such alarming projections, adaptation efforts alone cannot keep pace with the effects of climate change.
Stella Hartinger, director of the report’s regional center for South America
Stella Hartingerdirector of the report’s regional center for South America, explains: “In the face of such alarming projections, adaptation efforts alone cannot keep pace with the effects of climate change, and the associated costs are accelerating to the point of becoming insurmountable.” .
An industry in which you cannot stop investing
The new updated indicators reveal that the fossil fuel industry is receiving increasing investments and loans. “Despite the negative effects, governments continue to provide subsidies that hinder the transition to clean and renewable energy,” they explain from the BSC-CNS. In 2020, 69 of the 87 governments analyzed in this report subsidized these companies, with a net total of $305 billion. This money exceeded 10% of national health spending in 26 of the countries and 50% in ten countries analyzed.
“The energy system is the main emitter of greenhouse gases. Although the generation of renewable energy is increasing, it has not yet significantly replaced fossil fuels. To illustrate this, at the rate observed between 2011 and 2020, North America would need 82 years to completely decarbonize its energy matrix, and Europe, about 80 years,” add the BSC-CNS scientists.
He financial sector It also contributes to health threats, with a total loan from private banks to this industry reaching 572 billion in the period from 2017 to 2021. Together, the 20 global oil and gas giants have increased their projections for the production of these fuels compared to last year.
It is important to maintain social pressure; Solid demands will ensure that climate change mitigation and adaptation actions are prioritized
Rachel Lowe, Martín Lotto Batista and Kim van Daalen
At the same time, countries with fewer resources are excluded from the transition towards clean energy, and unequal access to them has led the most vulnerable communities to depend on the use of fuels that pollute the atmosphere.
“At a time when the world is on the brink of irreversible damage, the fact that governments and companies continue to invest shamelessly in the oil and gas industry means they are ensuring that the 1.5°C global warming target is met. Paris Agreement is not fulfilled”, concludes the professor Paul Ekinshead of the working group Lancet Countdown about economics and finance.
“It is important keep up social pressure; Solid demands will ensure that climate change mitigation and adaptation actions are prioritized. Everyone has a role in this: activists, non-governmental actors, local governments, science workers, etc. Indeed, as scientists, we must continue to provide the information and evidence to understand the impacts that humanity is experiencing and those we expect in the future,” conclude the BSC-CNS experts.
Reference:
Marina Romanello et al. “The 2023 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: the imperative for a health-centred response in a world facing irreversible harms”. The Lancet.
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