2024-07-14 02:15:49
The intense heat towards the end of May, which extended to the first days of June, and the lack of irrigation water affected the production of the agro-foodswhich boosted their prices, coincided financial analysts.
The drought and the climate with temperatures of more than 30 degrees in the central area and which rose to 40 degrees in the interior of the Republic hit the crops of chayote, green tomato, orange, guava, lettuce and cabbage, poblano chili and green beans, and even herbs like cilantro and epazote became scarce environmental issuesas reported by 24 Horas.
At the end of June, consumer inflation had a rebound of 0.38% to reach 4.98% at an annual rate. This is the fourth consecutive increase, mainly due to pressure from the fresh food (not processed).
An analysis by Alejandro Saldaña of Bx+ bank projected that inflation could moderate until the second half of the year, but there are still upside risks and an uncertain outlook.
“Therefore, we anticipate that Banxico maintain the reference rate at 11% in its decision next month.”
Citibanamex He stressed that, although to a lesser extent, inflation also had an impact on the price of housing and gasoline.
Annual core inflation decreased to 4.13%, and with seasonally adjusted figures the annualized monthly underlying decreased to 3.3%, the lowest figure since January 2021, detailed an analysis of Ivan Arias, director of analysis at the bank.
“We estimate that annual general inflation will resume a gradual downward trend in the 3T24 and we maintain our estimates for annual headline and core inflation at the end of the year. 2024 in 4.4% y 4.5%, respectively, with balanced risks.”
Arias commented that annual inflation will resume a downward trend in the third quarter of 2024 and it is estimated that at the end of this year it will be at 4.4%.
“In recent months, headline inflation has been moderately above its long-term average of 4.5%, but well below the post-pandemic peak of 8.7% observed in August and September 2022, while the underlying component remains in a downward trend”.
“So far, the decrease recorded in this last component has responded mainly to the lower inflation of goods, but in the remainder of the year we do not see conditions for significant declines.”
While, Alejandro Padilla From the economic analysis department of Banorte, he added that considering the recent dynamics and some changes in our expectations for prices, “we revised our forecast for general inflation at the end of the year to 3.34% (from the previous 4.3%), although the underlying inflation may be lower at 3.7% (previously 4.4%).
“We have to pay attention to the minutes of Banxico on Thursday, awaiting more information for the next steps.”
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2024-07-14 02:15:49