2023-12-24 12:34:00
The chief economist at the Landesbank Hessen-Thüringen, Gertrud Traud, expects Hesse’s economy to grow above average next year. In an interview with the FAZ, she confirmed the bank’s forecast that Hesse’s gross domestic product would grow by 1.5 percent in 2024, 0.2 percentage points more than that of the Federal Republic as a whole. In general, she assumes that there will be an economic recovery in Germany next year, said Traud – despite many structural difficulties. A reduction in the European Central Bank’s key interest rates, which is currently being anticipated by the stock markets, will also contribute to this. The recovery can already be seen in the construction sector; incoming orders have recently increased again.
Manfred Köhler
Head of department of the Rhine-Main editorial team of the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.
Traud emphasized that Helaba had not withdrawn its economic forecast after the Federal Constitutional Court’s ruling on the federal budget. “You can also generate growth without spending money,” she explained. However, a shift from demand to supply policy is necessary. The general conditions for companies need to be improved. “People no longer believe Germany can grow.”
Special advantage: “Industry mix”
When asked what advice she would give to the new black-red coalition in the Hessian state parliament, Traud said that in order for companies to be happy to stay in the state, the infrastructure had to be right; this was one of the most important prerequisites. Helaba had already presented a study in October in which the expectation of above-average growth in Hesse was justified by the fact that the gross domestic product in this state was already 0.4 percent above the national average in the first six months of the year that ended Economic output in the Federal Republic fell by 0.3 percent in the same period. In addition, rising interest rates could prove to be a driver for the financial sector, which is important in Frankfurt. Finally, the European Football Championship in the summer could trigger impulses for air traffic and gastronomy. The Landesbank cited the “special mix of sectors” as a strength of the Hessian economy. No other federal state can have a financial center, an international airport and a large trade fair location at the same time.
A comment from Philipp Krohn Published/Updated: Recommendations: 1 A comment from Daniel Mohr Published/Updated: Recommendations: 34 Carsten Knop Published/Updated: , Recommendations: 17
Traud looks with confidence not only at the economy of Hesse, but also at the stock markets. The chief economist expects the Dax to reach 17,500 points at the end of 2024. Twelve months ago she had predicted a level of 16,000 for the end of this year. This means that of all 28 institutions surveyed by the FAZ at the end of last year, Helaba was closest to the now expected closing price on the last trading day of the year; the average of the forecasts was 15,047.
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