2023-05-27 02:21:13
Prepare two new books and see that the world reached unprecedented levels of destruction. That is why he calls for conciliation with China and warns about Artificial Intelligence
Henry Kissinger turns 100 this Saturday. Age has the symbolic charge of an outstanding crew member of the last century, especially. Close to this anniversary, the former chancellor, who has just published Leadership, is preparing two other texts, one on Artificial Intelligence. Apart from the reasonable controversies that flood his long history, his thought matters, still very sharp. Here part of the reflections that he shared in various reports, including the most recent with The Economist.
“We live in a world of unprecedented destruction. It has never been possible to destroy all of your opponents, due to geographic and precision limitations. There are no more limitations. Every adversary is 100% vulnerable.”
Regarding the tension with China, he affirms that the world “is in the classic situation prior to the First War where neither party has much room for political concessions and in which any disturbance of the balance can have catastrophic consequences”.
He maintains that there is not much time for that conciliation. The advance of Artificial Intelligence (AI), due to the changes it will produce, leaves only 5 to 10 years to find a way “In the US they say that China wants to dominate the world. The answer is that they (China) want to be powerful. They are not heading for world domination in a Hitlerian sense. This is not how they think the world order.”
“If they achieved a superiority that can actually be used, would they take it to the point of imposing Chinese culture? I don’t know. My instinct is no… [Pero] I think it is in our ability to prevent that situation from arising through a combination of diplomacy and force.”
“China tries to play a global role. We have to assess whether conceptions of a strategic role are compatible. If they are not, the question of strength will arise. Is it possible for China and the US to coexist without the threat of all-out war between them? It can fail. Therefore, we have to be strong enough militarily to withstand failure.”
“The way things have evolved, it’s not easy now for the US to leave Taiwan without undermining its position elsewhere.”
The advice is to reduce tension and build trust. Imagine a talk between a US president and his Chinese colleague: “Mr. President, the two greatest dangers to peace right now are the two of us. In the sense that we have the ability to destroy humanity.”
Seeking the collapse of the Chinese regime “would lead to a civil war. In any stability diplomacy, there has to be some element of the 19th century world that was based on the proposition that the existence of the states that contested it was not in dispute.
Putin’s catastrophic mistake
About the war. “It was certainly a catastrophic misjudgment by Putin.” But also “the decision to leave Ukraine’s membership in NATO open was very wrong.”
He believes Russia should hand over as much of the territory it conquered even in 2014 but in any ceasefire Russia is likely to keep Sevastopol (its largest naval base in Crimea).
* Recommends two steps to lasting peace. Ukraine must join NATO in order to restrict and protect it. And the West must move closer to Russia to create a stable eastern border.
China has a primary interest in seeing Russia emerge from the war intact. A collapse in Moscow would worry China because it would create a power vacuum in Central Asia that risks being filled by a “Syrian-type civil war.”
Kissinger welcomes the call of the Chinese leader Xi Jinping to the Ukrainian Volodomir Zelensky. He sees it as a breakthrough. But he warns that a Beijing mediation is tinged with a mistrust of one another. “I have never met a Russian leader who would say something good about China. Or a Chinese leader who has said something good about Russia.” They are not natural allies.
The current leaders
US and China must discuss AI “We are at the beginning of a capacity in which machines could impose a global pestilence, not only nuclear but any field of human destruction.”
He warns that AI will be a key factor in security in five years. And he compares its disruptive potential with the invention of the printing press.
“We have to start exchanges about the impact of technology between us. We have to take baby steps toward gun control, where each side presents the other with controllable material.”
He doubts the current leadership. “I don’t think Biden can provide inspiration and I hope the Republicans find someone better than Trump. It’s not a great moment in history.”
The great challenge for the US is “to achieve long-term strategic thinking. If we don’t, the predictions of failure will be true.”
“World leaders have a great responsibility. They require realism to face the dangers, vision to see that the solution lies in striking a balance between the forces of their countries, and restraint to refrain from using their offensive powers to the maximum. It is an unprecedented challenge but also a great opportunity.”
MC.
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