Two weeks have passed since Iran declared its intention to retaliate for the assassination of Hamas’s political leaders, but the biggest surprise is that an attack on Israel has yet to be carried out.
Israeli and allied officials believe that an attack by Iran or its proxy forces could occur at any moment. However, they expect that Iran will choose to conduct its response in a way that avoids escalating into a war involving the entire region or undermining ceasefire negotiations in the Gaza Strip, aiming to send a clear message to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu.
According to what Western officials revealed anonymously due to confidential analyses, the attack is likely to target civilian infrastructure around the northern Israeli city of Haifa and could proceed in a manner that avoids civilian casualties, which could provoke a severe retaliation. It may not be carried out by Iran itself but rather by its proxy forces.
Another option is for Iran to carry out a more concentrated attack than it did in April. In the April attack, nearly all of the missiles and drones launched by Iran were intercepted by Israel and its allies. At that time, proxy forces, including Hezbollah, refrained from attacking Israel simultaneously.
Palestinian residents forced to evacuate certain areas of Khan Younis in southern Gaza on July 27.
Photographer: Ahmad Salem/Bloomberg
If Iran opts for a broader strike, targets could include Israel’s desalination plants, nuclear reactors, and military facilities. There is also the possibility of launching a large-scale cyberattack that could paralyze the country without firing a single missile.
Meanwhile, leaders from Middle Eastern countries and U.S. and European officials are concerned that Iran’s retaliatory attacks could escalate conflicts and further destabilize the region, prompting a 24-hour diplomatic effort. With ceasefire negotiations in Gaza stalled, John Kirby, the Strategic Communications Coordinator for the U.S. National Security Council (NSC), stated on the 12th that the United States and its allies “must prepare for the possibility of a significant attack.”
Both Iran and the United States have indicated that achieving a ceasefire in Gaza would have the effect of alleviating tensions throughout the region, with attention focused on ceasefire negotiations scheduled in Qatar on the 15th. The Israeli Prime Minister’s Office confirmed on the 14th that a delegation would head to Doha, but Hamas has yet to guarantee its participation.
Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute, a Washington-based think tank, pointed out that due to its relatively weak air defense capabilities and limited strike abilities confined to drones and missiles, along with its economy being severely impacted by sanctions, Iran is not prepared to initiate a large-scale war.
Allied countries such as the UK and France are likely to re-engage in Israel’s defense should an attack occur. Sources familiar with discussions among allies stated that if Israel is attacked, France is certain to provide support, including missile interception.
Vatanka explained that another option for Iran could be to avoid or delay its retaliation to gain a moral advantage and possibly use the ceasefire negotiations mediated by the U.S. and Qatar between Israel and Hamas as an excuse for this. However, this possibility does not seem very high.
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Original Title: Iran Suspense Grows as Israel and Its Allies Brace for Attack (Excerpt)