The war on Ukrainian soil entered its 18th day this morning (Sunday), when Ukrainian authorities reported that eight missiles had been launched at a military base near the northwestern city of Lvov. At the same time, the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that the forces had destroyed 3,687 military targets since the invasion began.
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Military Historian, Prof. Danny AuerbachSpoke this morning with Golan Yokfaz and Anat Davidov on 103FM and assessed the chances that they will try to eliminate the Russian president, Vladimir Putin“This is a scenario that is very, very unlikely. The security systems for modern leaders and for Putin in general are very heavy and sophisticated, certainly for dictators like him. It should be noted that in the last 20 years there have been very few successful political assassinations of leaders. “One hand, and usually in underdeveloped countries, in not very modern countries.”
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“Sitting at the long table, it’s mainly because of his anxieties about Corona. He’s also a hypochondriac. And it should be noted that even his air in his palace is constantly tested for toxins and pathogens. “The fear is that someone from the security service will assassinate the president,” he added.
“Alongside the Federal Security Service there is also the Kremlin Guard, and among other things it oversees the subversion of other services,” Auerbach said, adding that “the best chance is an assassination from the inner circle, someone who has already gone through all the screening. Probably one of the security guards. I do not appreciate “It can not happen, it happens, it happened, I think the chances are low.”
Next, he referred to the chances that they will try to eliminate the President of Ukraine, Vladimir Zlansky, “Zalanski’s assassination, of course, is easier, because he has fewer means of security and he is also not a dictator, but he is well secured. And it can be said to his credit that three assassination attempts failed. “We know there have been attempts. I guess he really wants to because it fits his strategy, to end the war quickly.”
Referring to the question of whether there is a dramatic significance to changing history during the assassination of a leader, Auerbach said that “it very much depends on how centralized the regime is. “It is a very centralized regime, very much dependent on it personally. Therefore, if it dies, it is likely that the regime will degenerate into succession struggles, it is very good for the Ukrainians.”
“Targeted assassinations, just like political assassinations, are very effective in organizations based on very specific leaders, such as the Taliban at the time, al-Qaeda assassinated the leader of the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan. Ahmad Shah Massoud And it hit her very hard because she was very based on his leadership. In organizations like Hamas or organizations that are more bureaucratic, it does not harm the organization in the long run. It hurts him in the short term and it just gives points in a very long war of attrition. “
In conclusion, he estimated that thwarting or political assassination of Iran would only delay the country’s nuclearization. “And I also do not think anyone has any pretensions that assassinations or assassinations will prevent the Iranian nuclear program,” he concluded.
Assisted in the preparation of the article: Amitai Duak, 103fm