DECRYPTION – How the forecasting models of political scientists, based on political and economic data, announce a victory for the Republicans on November 8.
For forty years, American voters have systematically sanctioned the president’s camp during the midterm elections. With one notorious exception to this curse: in the “midterms” of 2002, George W. Bush benefited from a rallying in reaction to the attacks of September 11, 2001. When the voters take note of a disappointing economic and political balance sheet, they defeat the ruling party. And thus confirm the so-called theory of governmental responsibility of political scientists and “politico-economists”. “It’s the economy, stupid!», as James Carville, Bill Clinton’s adviser proclaimed in 1991, recalling that the economy predominates over the other factors of electoral choice. Will Joe Biden and the Democrats be sanctioned on November 8? And, if so, to what extent?
Predictions from simple voter opinion surveys, for the House of Representatives, such as the…
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