It is the second largest city in the country. Last Saturday Aleppo was taken by Syrian rebels and jihadists Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Now they are advancing towards the city of hama, devouring a vast territory. A decisive victory during the war in Syria.On the part of damascus, the defeat is crushing and particularly worrying if we take into account the regional and international situation. Its major allies, Russia and Iran, are looking elsewhere. and without their support,the Syrian army is in great difficulty on the ground.
Since October 7, 2023, the cards have been reshuffled in the Middle East. “Like 9/11 or the Arab Spring,” the large-scale terrorist attack perpetrated by Hamas in Israel was a turning point in the region that underwent a “reconfiguration, a recomposition,” estimates Adel Bakawan, associate researcher at Turkey/Middle East program of the french Institute of International Relations (Ifri). “The regional context has played a fundamental role in the current situation in syria,” says the man who is also director of the French Center for research on Iraq (CFRI). According to the researcher, the two groups, HTS and the Free Syrian Army rebels, thus took advantage of the unrest that has been shaking the region for just over a year.
Iranians, IsraelS targets
In fact, since 8 October 2023, Israel has launched an offensive against the Gaza Strip, but also against the Iranian allies of the Damascus regime. The attacks targeted the Revolutionary Guards’ military bases in Syria, including their diplomatic headquarters.on April 1, 2024, Israel bombed an Iranian consulate building in Damascus, killing 16 people, including the commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force.
The other actor close to Iran that has worked for the survival of Bashar al-Assad’s regime is Hezbollah. “The armed group, the most powerful actor involved in Syria, has been structurally present on the ground for several months”, underlines Adel Bakawan who adds that “all the top leaders have been decimated”. According to experts, cited by Radio francebetween 60% and 80% of its arsenal of medium- and long-range missiles was destroyed. Result: “Hezbollah has withdrawn from syrian territory and is now fighting for its survival in Lebanon,” claims the researcher.
the Iranian militias, also engaged in support of the Syrian army, “are no longer able to go to Syria even if in the discussion they always advance the defense of the resistance axis”, continues our expert.
Russia is busy in Ukraine and the Sahel
The other giant that allowed Bashar al-Assad to quell the rebellion and remain at the helm of a ruined and fragmented Syria is Russia. But for the Kremlin too, priority goes to other reasons. Moscow is trying to establish itself in the Sahel as an ally of the coup regimes that ousted the French forces. But above all it declared war on 24 Febuary 2022 in Kiev and “had to withdraw many men and equipment to ukraine”, adds Pieter Van Ostaeyen, historian, analyst of the Syrian conflict and author of the book. From the crusades to the Caliphate (Pelckmann).
Vladimir putin, in fact, maintains his course in Ukraine and tries to maximize gains in the field before Donald Trump arrives at the White House “so as not to destabilize the good relations he maintains wiht the elected American president”, analyzes Adel Bakawan. If Moscow launched some air raids in the province of Idlib and in the neighboring province of Aleppo to help its Syrian ally, in response to the rebel advance, Russia is no longer committing the same capabilities. Those of 2014 and 2015, when its air force reduced the region to ashes.
“A fall of the regime [syrien] is not excluded”
Bashar al-Assad insisted on Sunday on the importance of “allied support” to “deal with terrorist attacks”.And on the part of Iran and russia, in the speeches, there is no talk of letting go. Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Iranian counterpart Massoud Pezeshkian affirmed their “unconditional” support. China also got involved, promising to support the Syrian regime in “its efforts to preserve stability.”
In reality,though,not much is happening,notes Adel Bakawan. Experts doubt whether the same level of commitment as in the past can be put in place soon together with Damascus. Though, “without the support of Iran and Russia, a fall of the regime is not excluded”, says the researcher, who however remains cautious as “the situation in the region is extremely fluid”.President “Assad probably does not have the necessary resources to retake Aleppo,” Tammy Palacios of the new Lines institute confirmed to AFP.
Our dossier on the situation in the Middle East
Another state, which has remained discreet lately, is rubbing its hands. If it rejects any interference in the rebels’ latest advances in Syria, Turkey could benefit from a much weakened Bashar al-Assad. The latter could thus be forced to sit at the negotiating table, in particular to discuss northern Syria, where Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Kurdish enemies are based. The Turkish president therefore hoped on monday for “the end of the instability that has lasted for thirteen years in Syria” thanks to a solution “in accordance with the requests of the Syrians”.
How are regional dynamics in the Middle East currently influencing the Syrian conflict?
Time.news Interview: Analyzing the Recent Developments in Syria with Adel Bakawan
Time.news Editor (TNE): Good morning, Adel.Thank you for joining us today. The recent capture of Aleppo by Syrian rebels and jihadists seems to be a significant turning point in the Syrian conflict. What are your immediate thoughts on this development?
Adel Bakawan (AB): Good morning, and thank you for having me. The fall of Aleppo is indeed monumental. It is not just the second-largest city in Syria; it also symbolizes the strategic depth of the Assad regime. With rebels, including Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, advancing towards Hama, we are witnessing a critical phase in the overarching conflict. This marks a decisive victory for the factions opposing Assad and highlights the regime’s faltering hold over the territory.
TNE: You mentioned the role of regional dynamics in Syria’s current instability. Can you elaborate on how the changing landscape in the Middle east has influenced this situation?
AB: Absolutely. The cards in the region have indeed been reshuffled as October 7, 2023, following the large-scale Hamas attack in Israel.This event acted as a catalyst for many actors in the Middle East, prompting a realignment of alliances and priorities. The instability created by this attack has provided an opportunity for various groups, including HTS and the Free Syrian army rebels, to exploit the chaos and expand their territorial influence.
TNE: It seems that Iran and Russia’s support for the Assad regime is also waning. How does this loss of backing affect the Syrian army’s operational capacity?
AB: The Assad regime has heavily relied on the military support of Iran and Russia.With regional tensions rising and their focus diverted elsewhere, notably with Russia’s interests in Ukraine and Iran’s commitments in Iraq and Lebanon, the syrian military now finds itself in a precarious position. Without the robust backing from its allies, the regime struggles to maintain its operations on the ground, and this is evident in their recent setbacks, such as in Aleppo.
TNE: Israel’s actions against Iranian targets in Syria have escalated recently. How do you see these developments playing into the larger narrative of the conflict?
AB: Israel’s offensive has targeted not just Iranian military bases but also the infrastructure supporting Bashar al-Assad’s regime. By striking these targets, Israel aims to weaken Iranian influence and disrupt their operations in Syria. The bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus was particularly striking, given its implications. Such actions signify a tactical approach by Israel to proactively mitigate threats posed by Iranian entrenchment in Syria.
TNE: Turning to Hezbollah, what role do they play in this evolving conflict, particularly in relation to the Assad regime’s survival?
AB: hezbollah has been a critical ally for Bashar al-Assad, providing military strength and expertise necessary for the regime’s survival. Despite significant losses among its leadership recently, Hezbollah remains the most powerful actor on the ground, with a well-established presence in Syria. Though, if the balance continues to shift against Assad, Hezbollah could also find itself stretched thin, especially if they are required to fight on multiple fronts in the region.
TNE: what do you believe lies ahead for Syria? Are we witnessing the beginning of a potential tipping point?
AB: Yes, it certainly appears so. The current developments suggest an escalation in the conflict, where various groups could vie for control and influence. If Assad’s regime continues to falter without sufficient support, we may see a fragmentation of power, which can lead to a protracted and perhaps more violent conflict. Though,the future will greatly depend on how regional and international players decide to position themselves in response to these emerging threats.
TNE: Thank you, Adel, for sharing your insights. The situation is indeed complex, and it’s clear that the implications of these developments will be felt well beyond Syria’s borders.
AB: Thank you for having me. Its crucial we continue to monitor these dynamics carefully, as they have far-reaching consequences for the entire region.