2023-04-19 17:48:58
India is expected to become the most populous country in the world by the middle of this year. With 1.4286 billion inhabitants, the country will then exceed the population of China estimated at 1.4257 billion, according to a report by the United Nations Population Fund published on Wednesday (April 19th).
Since the 1950s, these two countries have been the most populous in the world. To deal with the challenges of overpopulation, birth rate policies have been put in place. A look back at seventy years of demographic evolution.
►1950-1970: China has the world’s largest population
At the end of the Second World War, the young People’s Republic of China, proclaimed in 1949, had more than 543 million inhabitants and was already establishing itself as the most populous country in the world, encouraged by a pro-natalist policy of the leader Mao Zedong. .
The Middle Kingdom is followed by India, which had 357 million inhabitants in 1950. Aware of the size of its population, India became the first country to adopt a family policy in 1952. But Indian demography remains difficult to measure. Birth certificates only became mandatory in 1969.
The large population of these two Asian countries is due to their size (China being second, behind Russia) but also to the omnipresence of large families.
In the 1960s, India had a high birth rate (nearly six children per woman), rapidly increasing the number of inhabitants. But China is doing even more, with a birth rate peaking in 1963 at 7.5 children per woman.
► 1970-1990: population reduction policies
Overpopulation leads to housing problems, starvation and poverty. The two Asian countries are respectively trying to control the birth rate to reap this unbridled growth.
The 1970s marked a turning point for China. In just over twenty years, the population has doubled, approaching one billion inhabitants (a figure reached in 1982). The authorities then imposed a drastic measure: limiting the family to one child per household, in order to limit the Chinese population to 1.2 billion in the year 2000.
The birth rate plummeted: from 6 children per woman in 1970 to 2.5 in 1990.
India is facing the same difficulty and decides to control the birth rate more. In the 1970s, she organized male and then female sterilization campaigns. At the end of the decade, a family planning program was launched, marked by numerous abuses and coercions.
Despite its efforts to contain the growth of its population, India exceeded one billion inhabitants in 1997.
► 1990-2023: a relaxation of family planning policies
The one-child policy leads to many difficulties in China: forced abortions, hidden children and a persistent girl-boy imbalance. China becomes “the most masculine country in the world” with 106 men for every 100 women. That is a deficit of 60 million women in the country, recalls the National Institute for Demographic Studies (INED).
In the 2010s, Beijing relaxed its policy to allow all couples to have a second child in 2015 and then a third in 2021. That same year, for the first time since the 1959 famine, China recorded a drop in its population.
For its part, New Delhi is also easing its restrictive policies. But sterilization is still widely practiced, and the birth rate has been halved in thirty years (from 4.04 in 1990 to 2.05 in 2020).
Scheduled for 2021, the decennial census was to give the latest figures for the Indian population. But it was delayed by the coronavirus pandemic before getting bogged down in logistical and political issues.
► 2023, India overtakes China, and after?
According to the latest UN estimates, India will overtake China in mid-2023 and is expected to reach its peak population (1.67 billion people) in 2047.
In India, the population should then gradually decrease. For its part, the Chinese population should decline much more sharply. It could peak at only 771 million inhabitants in 2100, or half of the current population, according to INED projections.
Well on its way to remaining the most populous country for a long time, India is taking advantage of its population to establish itself as the fastest growing major economy in the world. It has already dislodged the former British colonial power from fifth place in the world ranking of the richest countries in terms of GDP.
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