2023-07-14 07:30:00
France rolls out the red carpet for him. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who arrived in Paris on Thursday, is the guest of honor at the traditional July 14 military parade. The opportunity for Emmanuel Macron to consolidate France’s strategic relationship with New Delhi (which has just given its agreement in principle for the purchase of 26 Rafale aircraft and three French submarines), a key international player. India, currently the fifth largest economy in the world, could indeed become the second by 2075, according to a recent report by Goldman Sachs bank.
It would thus rank just behind China and pass in front of the United States, according to these projections. Beijing would reach a GDP of 57,000 billion dollars in 50 years, almost three times more than currently (about 20,000 billion). India, for its part, would have a GDP of 52.5 trillion dollars, nearly 15 times more than today, while the GDP of the United States would be 51.5 trillion dollars.
The first asset of India is its demography. With 1.4 billion inhabitants, the Indian population became the largest in the world last April. “The key to harnessing the potential of this growing population is to boost participation within its workforce, as well as providing training and skills to its huge pool of talent,” Santanu Sengupta said in the report. Indian economist at Goldman Sachs Research.
Progress in innovation
“Over the next two decades, India’s dependency ratio (ratio of its working-age population to its number of children and elderly people) will be one of the lowest among economies in the region. “, he underlines.
“As many countries around the world are aging and their populations are shrinking, India’s young and well-educated workforce will stand the world in good stead for decades to come,” said the Prime Minister. Indian Narendra Modi in an interview with Echos, this Thursday.
But demography will not be the only driver of GDP, continues Santanu Sengupta. “India has made more progress in innovation and technology than some people think, says the economist. In technical terms, this means greater output for each unit of labor and capital in the economy. Indian.”
Capital investment
Narendra Modi reiterated his desire to “make India a leader in artificial intelligence, quantum computing, semiconductors, space and defence”. “We attach particular importance to the development of infrastructure […] India is the fifth largest economy in the world and will soon be the third,” he told the French business daily.
Another driver of the Indian economy according to Santanu Sengupta: capital investment. “Driven by favorable demographics, India’s savings rate is likely to rise with falling dependency ratios, rising incomes and deeper development of the financial sector, which should make the capital pool available to stimulate new investments”, he explains.
Jean-François Huchet, an economist specializing in Asia, adds that the country has assets in “training, education and scientific culture. India has made major progress over the past twenty years, affirms to L’Express the professor and president of Inalco. She has a remarkable ability to train engineers to feed and help this development in many areas”.
Important resources
“Its diaspora, very well trained in strategic places in terms of innovation, is another major force”, continues Jean-François Huchet, referring to the presence of Indians “in Silicon Valley, Singapore, Southeast Asia , and even in Europe”.
India can also count on significant resources and raw materials, underlines the French economist. “Very dependent on foreign countries, India nevertheless has a lot of coal, sunshine, and a certain number of rare raw materials for its industrialization.” It has also made “a lot of progress in terms of road connection, with significant acceleration potential”, he says.
A specialist in the history of the economic development of China and India from a comparative perspective, Jean-François Huchet finally notes that India also owes its place to the fact that it belongs to “this alliance which surrounds China, and which aims to maintain a certain Asian balance”. “It’s a land where investments can go with confidence,” he concludes.
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