Facing the risk of running out of gas and electricity this winter as Russian deliveries stop – now “the most likely option”according to the Minister of the Economy, Bruno Le Maire – industrialists and public authorities are organizing themselves in order to deal with the most urgent matters.
“In some regions, the administration calls shopping centers to ask them to check whether their generators are still in working order. In case “, says a professional. Manufacturers draw up emergency plans. “We have converted our boilers, so that they are able to run on gas or oil and even that we can switch to coal if we need it”explained Florent Menegaux, the president of Michelin, at the Economic Meetings of Aix-en-Provence, on July 10, recalling that a tire factory needs a continuous energy supply and that it takes several days to stopping and restarting production.
Among cement manufacturers, it is currently a race against time to recover the maximum amount of solid recovered fuel (SRF), these large granules obtained from non-hazardous waste. But not all boilers are suitable and the volumes offered will not be enough to compensate for fossil fuels.
Prices are soaring
“In gas as in electricity, prices have become stratospheric, because the market anticipates cuts for this winter. These are, in a way, the price of fear “, underlines Thérèse Sliva-Marion of Cleee, an association bringing together major energy buyers. For the fourth quarter, the TTF, the benchmark index for gas prices in Europe, is at €190/MWh, twelve times more than two years ago. Same with electricity. For delivery in the fourth quarter, the MWh is currently worth around €800, and even €960 for December.
“Companies have covered themselves rather well by buying their gas and electricity in advance until the end of the year. But the concern is especially valid for the beginning of 2023: some will have no choice but to stop given the price levels », Estimates Julien Teddé, co-founder of the broker Opéra Énergie. This was done, for example, by the steel group LME Beltrame in the North, by stopping its furnaces for a few days last winter.
Nuclear production at an all-time low
“But this time, we will probably not escape load shedding measures in January, if it is very cold, or even at the end of the summer, if the drought persists. (due to insufficient hydroelectric production, editor’s note) »believes for his part Nicolas de Warren, the president of the Union of energy-using industries (Uniden), which brings together those who consume the most.
Because Russian gas will not be the only one to miss this winter. With 27 reactors out of 56, nuclear production is at its lowest for thirty years. EDF is struggling to get out of the pandemic, which has completely disrupted the maintenance schedule for its aging fleet.
Added to this are the corrosion problems observed on the secondary circuits: three reactors have been shut down and in nine others checks are currently being carried out, as part of unit shutdowns. “Everyone is now wondering if EDF will be able to quickly put part of its fleet back into service. This is the key question”believes the boss of Uniden.
Burn less gas to make electricity
In the meantime, the government has introduced an energy sovereignty chapter in the purchasing power project, the discussion of which began on July 18. It plans to increase gas storage (tanks will have to be 100% full by 1is November, instead of 85%) and will facilitate the creation of a floating LNG terminal off Le Havre, by removing a number of environmental constraints, so that it will be operational in the winter of 2023.
Devices to prepare for possible rationing have been introduced in the bill on purchasing power, the discussion of which begins Monday, July 18 in the National Assembly. The State will thus have the possibility of suspending the operation of gas-fired power stations producing electricity, in order to save molecules. A questionnaire was also sent to the 5,000 companies whose consumption exceeds five gigawatt hours per year and which represent almost half of the demand. The goal is to find out who could be cut without too much damage and for how long.