Madrid“We must be prepared for further disruptions in gas supplies, even for a total cut by Russia.” These words were uttered by the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, last week and are the clear warning that this autumn and winter the international gas market and, therefore, the obtaining of this fossil fuel will not will live in favorable conditions. Europe has already seen how Russia has not only decreased the amount of gas it sends, but has directly shut down the tap of this fuel to countries such as Poland, Finland or Denmark in retaliation for sanctions against the invasion of Ukraine, fact which has put its energy security between the ropes.
Precisely, the fear that the list of affected countries will grow revives this Monday. The Nord Stream pipeline, the largest in Europe and connecting Germany with Russia, is shut down for a few days for maintenance reasons. The question is whether it will be more than expected. “It is a possibility that we must consider,” acknowledged on Friday the Minister of Ecological Transition, Teresa Ribera, assuming that such a situation would produce “maximum tension, no longer in the fall but in the coming weeks,” and in particular in countries like Germany , which depends on Russian gas.
For all this, member states have been preparing for weeks. Also Spain. Although the state is not so energy dependent on Russia (for now, it is the fourth largest gas supplier in 2022 and contributes 10.1% of the total fuel that has arrived, according to the latest data published by Enagas), the tensions that may exist in other countries translate into pressure on prices, which have already multiplied by five in the last year. “We need to consolidate various suppliers, think about smarter consumption and have reserves in case we need to contribute to other countries in the European Union,” said Ribera.
Reinforce storage
The main measure is to have enough stored gas to cope with consumption in autumn and winter, when demand grows due to the cold. Here, Spain plays with a big advantage because it has 40% of the liquefied natural gas (LNG) regasification plants in all of Europe (it is the country with the most plants). In addition, he has very advanced homework.
With the first shock plan approved to deal with the war, the Spanish government introduced the obligation to store natural gas in underground warehouses. Specifically, according to the latest data provided by Enagás to ARA, these warehouses are at 72.9% of their total capacity (the third country in the European Union with the largest reserve, only behind Poland and Denmark). Spain has been able to store so much natural gas thanks to the LNG regasification capacity it buys from countries such as the United States, Nigeria or Russia. On the other hand, to facilitate recharging, the Spanish government lowered the tolls that companies have to pay during the process.
The different regasification plants allow gas to be stored on the surface. To accelerate the increase in LNG reserves, this June Russia has become the second largest supplier in Spain: it has contributed 24.4% of the total fuel that has reached the state (both in the form of natural gas and LNG). Spain has six regasification plants spread throughout the territory, which right now are also at 70% of their capacity, according to Enagás. The goal set by the Spanish government is for underground warehouses to reach 90% on November 1 and regasification plants to 80%.
Reactivation of the El Musel plant
Brussels is expected to announce at the end of this week a general framework for the entire European Union with the aim of establishing “solidarity mechanisms” in case any country needs to supply itself with gas urgently. In this sense, the Spanish executive has decided to reactivate the El Musel regasification plant in Gijón (Asturias), with a capacity to receive about 100 LNG LNG carriers per year.
This would be the state’s seventh regasification plant and would increase regasification capacity across Europe by up to 50%. However, its use will be mainly “logistical”, as stated in the European document REPowerEU. In other words, the opening of the El Musel plant – which Enagás estimates for the beginning of 2023 – is not designed to inject fuel into the network, but for LNG LNG carriers to unload fuel and another vessel can send it to a third country; as a kind of port. In fact, the gas stored in regasification plants is easier and faster to transport. It is an alternative to the few interconnections with France, the other route through which Spain can send gas to the rest of the continent.
This energy model in Spain, however, is not a one-day flower. In Germany, despite the deployment of interconnections, it depends on a buyer, who is Russia, and the arrival by tube of its gas. In addition, it does not have a large regasification capacity. Spain, on the other hand, has built an “energy island” model similar to that of Japan or South Korea. The islands or peninsulas have had to strengthen storage capacity to “avoid emergencies,” a sector source says.
Energy efficiency
However, the Spanish government has also begun work on more “daily” measures aimed at saving and energy efficiency. In the public sphere, the executive has approved a battery of measures to save up to 20% of what is consumed. On the other hand, it is studying how to “strengthen” the winter action plan that it approves each year, explain sources from the Ministry of Ecological Transition to ARA, and in particular apply possible contingency measures. This plan covers how to ensure the supply of gas in the event of unforeseen situations such as an increase in demand or even an unexpected loss of fuel or a breakdown in infrastructure.
But what does “contingency” mean? While the Transition Ministry does not go into specific details, Ribera has already indicated that these are “lifelong advice.” “If we think better when to use the car, the home thermostat … These are measures that do not cause great inconvenience, but that serve us to reduce consumption on a national scale,” said the minister. However, sources in the ministry headed by Ribera reiterate that “it is virtually impossible that [a Espanya] we have a cut in gas supply “and point out that in the Spanish case” it is not a problem of quantity, but of price. “The same sources, however, also point to another factor:” If Germany suddenly has to stop factories for lack of gas, that [econòmicament] it would also affect us. ”