Suja, located a few kilometers from the Ukrainian border, is an important processing point for Russian gas exported to Europe. Gas from Siberia comes to this city and then travels through Ukraine via pipelines to EU countries such as Hungary, Austria and Slovakia.
Ukraine and Russia are fighting over control of energy infrastructure
Last week, Ukraine’s military brigade released a video of its soldiers outside the offices of Russian gas giant Gazprom at the Suzha station, saying they were in full control of it.
Russia claims that Ukraine does not control the facility at all. satellite images released by Radio Free Europe earlier this week show extensive damage to some facilities in the area following the fighting.
However, as the portal reminds, Gazprom reported last week that it is still pumping gas from Suja through Ukraine, and the operators of the Austrian and Hungarian networks said that the gas supply has not been interrupted.
Neither Ukraine nor Russia seem willing to cut off gas transit through the Suja unless the relevant infrastructure is damaged.
Benjamin Hilgenstock of the Kyiv School of Economics says that if Ukraine wanted to cut off Russian gas, it could do so from its own territory at any time, so there is no reason to seize the Suzha station for this particular purpose.
“If Ukraine wanted to stop the transit of Russian gas, it could do it,” the interviewer commented to DW.
The Suzh station is the only transit hub in Russia that still processes gas en route to Ukraine. in 2022 in May, months after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Kiev stopped receiving gas through the Sokranovka hub, east of Ukraine’s Luhansk region.
How long can Russian gas flow to Europe through Ukraine? in 2019 in December, Moscow and Kiev signed a five-year gas transit agreement involving state-owned companies Gazprom and Naftogaz for the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine.
The contract expires in 2024. in december and Kiev has been signaling for a long time that it does not want to extend it. Russia says it will continue to supply gas until the deal expires.
If it is not extended, Russian gas will stop flowing through Ukraine. However, B. Hilgenstock noted that neither Ukraine nor Russia is interested in ending the supply earlier.
European countries that still receive Russian gas through the Ukrainian pipeline system know that their supply will expire at the end of the year, the expert believes. “I don’t think they would be too happy if something happened to the gas flow in the remaining four and a half months,” he says.
It seems that the most important thing for Kiev to maintain the gas flow is that it is seen as a legally compliant and reliable partner of the EU countries. According to the data published by the Central Bank of Ukraine, Kyiv will receive 100,000 euros from Russian gas transit fees in 2023. received 1.4 billion euros, and in the first three years of 2024 months – 392 million dollars.
Why is Russian gas still entering Europe?
With the outbreak of war in Ukraine, European leaders have been forced to address their long-standing dependence on Russian gas and oil. Gas was a particular problem because in 2021 more than a third of EU gas was supplied from Russia.
The EU has been reluctant to impose gas sanctions and openly expressed concerns about insufficient supply. However, individual countries have sharply reduced imports of Russian gas and, according to EU data, the share of Russian pipeline gas imported by member states has fallen from 40 percent. in 2021 to about 8 percent in 2023
However, including liquefied natural gas (LNG) – natural gas cooled to a liquid form so that it can be transported by ship – the total share of Russian gas in the EU was 15% last year.
According to the non-profit Center for Energy and Clean Air Research (CREA) based in Helsinki (Finland), in 2024 in the first half of the year, the EU imported 3.6 billion euros (3.9 billion US dollars) of Russian liquefied natural gas and 4.8 billion euros of Russian pipeline gas, which is more than three-quarters of its total spending on Russian hydrocarbons, including oil.
Austria, Hungary and Slovakia still import gas from Russia via pipelines. Almost all of Austria’s gas comes from Russia, but Vienna says it is actively looking for alternatives.
Hungary and Slovakia maintain pro-Moscow ties, but are also preparing for a possible cutoff of supplies through Ukraine in 2024. at the end Hungary recently concluded a gas supply agreement with Turkey, but this gas, which is delivered via the Turkstream pipeline, also comes from Russia.
Slovakia remains particularly dependent, but Slovakian gas company SPP says it has been preparing for the risk of Russian gas cuts for several years and has contracts with non-Russian suppliers.
Does Russian gas have a long-term future in Europe?
With the Ukrainian route expected to close soon, Turkstream is likely to become the only viable pipeline route for Russian gas to Europe.
Therefore, the other main way that Russian gas will still be delivered to Europe is through liquefied natural gas. Russian LNG is supplied to the EU in increasing quantities. France, the Netherlands and Spain are the biggest buyers.
Russia is now the EU’s second largest supplier of LNG, according to trade data company Kpler. LNG imports from Russia in 2023 accounted for 16 percent of the total EU LNG supply, i.e. 40 percent. more than 2021
The other problem was reloading. This is when the gas is processed in European ports before being re-exported to third countries around the world. A recent report prepared by CREA found that in 2023 slightly less than a quarter of European LNG imports from Russia (22%) will be transshipped to world markets.
Meanwhile, the United States-based Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) reports that in 2024 in the first half of the year, compared to the same period last year, Russian LNG transshipment in the EU increased by 12%.
Earlier this year, the EU finally decided to take action on transshipment. From 2025 in March transshipment of Russian LNG in EU ports will be prohibited.
Based on information from dw.com.
2024-08-21 15:18:27