2023-09-01 14:28:05
He euriborthe index to which 3.7 million of the five million mortgages of Spain, stood at August in it 4,073%which implies that you registered your first drop month after soaring 4.6 percentage points in 19 months of increases unprecedented, from -0.502% in December 2021 to 4.149% from last July. Las dues of the credits that have to be reviewed with the August index (usually those of October) will record the smoother climb from which those who used the Euribor experienced last septembera moderation that everything indicates that will expand in the coming months.
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Of course, the fees they will rise lessbut they will continue to rise, At least in the short term. In a mortgage of 150,000 euros at 24 years with a rate of Euribor plus 1% that has the August data as a reference (usually those that are revised in October), the monthly fee will go from 674 to 901, that is, 227 euros more per month and 2,724 euros more per year. for a credit of 300,000 euros With the same characteristics, the increase will be from 1,348 to 1,803 euros: 455 euros more per month and 5,460 euros more per year.
In addition, the blow for the mortgaged will be softer, but it will occur on the Hard hit that already fit twelve months ago. In order to understand what they have suffered in the last two years, the installments of the two credits used as reference were revised with the data of August 2021 at 552 and 1,105 euros per month, respectively, with which in two years they will have risen by 349 and 698 euros per month. That is, they will be 63% more expensive.
moderation
Although there are variable rate mortgages that are reviewed every six months, most do once a year. The quotas go up if the Euribor is higher than a year earlier in the month that serves as a reference to review the credit. The reason that quota increases have begun to moderate and are going to do so more pronouncedly in the coming months is precisely that the new levels of the Euribor they are comparing with those of the second part of 2022, considerably higher than those of the first half of that exercise. Thus, the Euribor started that year marking -0.477% in January and ended up shooting up to 3.018% in December.
In August of last year, the index stood at 1.249%, with which the interannual difference will now be about 2.82 points percentage. To put it in perspective, the year-over-year differences were less than one percentage point between January and May 2022 and were below the three points until last September. In October, they reached 3.1 points, in March they amounted to a maximum of 3,884 pointsand since then they have moderated, beginning to soften quota increases, until dropping below three points this August for the first time in eleven months.
Cuts at the expense of the ECB
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Main study services that publish Euribor forecasts estimate that the index has left behind its maximum and will continue to drop in the coming months. bankinter is expected to be on average in the 4.1% this year3.7% the next and 3.2% in 2025. CaixaBankfor his part, estimates it in the 3.86% this December and 2.8% at the end of 2024. And funcas sees it shrinking from the 4.03% average for the fourth quarter of 2023 to 3.33% between October and December of the next financial year. If so, the increases in the dues of mortgages will continue to moderate in the coming years and there will come a time when even they will start to go downperhaps around second trimester Next year.
All this, however, depends on what the European Central Bank (ECB) with reference rates to combat inflation. The monetary authority has left open raise them again mid-September or leave them unchangedbut it has also given clues that in principle there are not many more climbs left, if there are However, there is always the possibility that inflation will spike again and force you to further tighten monetary policy, although the growing signs of weakness in the Eurozone economy make this less likely.
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