2023-10-15 14:25:08
Both the US presidential cycle and the chancellor cycle, and thus the question of who rules in the White House or in the Chancellery, provide information on the price development on the stock market and the attractiveness of investment strategies based on historical experience. Looking at the past almost 60 years, it is clear that CDU-led federal governments have achieved significant real price gains and asset increases in the DAX and its predecessor indices. During these periods, overall market investments with a “buy and hold” strategy were successful.
In the case of SPD-led federal governments, overall market investments made less sense, as there were sometimes significant price losses in the DAX and real asset losses. In these time periods, the alternative strategy remains thematic, sector and individual stock selection. A good two years after the last federal election and almost two years after the election of Olaf Scholz (SPD) as Chancellor, the interim assessment confirms the previous historical experiences with the chancellor cycle.
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