Five U.S. presidents have ascended to the White House despite losing the popular vote, a feat most recently achieved by Donald Trump in 2016. His opponent, Hillary Clinton, garnered over 2.8 million more votes nationwide, but Trump secured enough pivotal state victories to clinch the Electoral College, 306 to 232.
In a rematch of sorts, Trump faced Joe Biden in 2020, this time losing both the popular vote and the Electoral College, again by a 306 to 232 margin. Trump is seeking the GOP nomination once more in the 2024 presidential election, facing a tight race against Vice President Kamala Harris.
Decoding the Electoral College
The Electoral College is the mechanism by which Americans indirectly elect their president and vice president. Candidates must amass 270 electoral votes, a majority of the 538 at stake, to claim victory.
Before the general election, each state selects a slate of electors. After voters cast their ballots in November, the candidate who earns the popular vote within a state determines which slate – Republican, Democrat, or third-party – will cast the state’s electoral votes.
In most states, whoever garners the most votes wins all of its electoral votes (winner-take-all). However, Maine and Nebraska employ a different system: their electors are allocated proportionally, meaning the winner of each congressional district receives one electoral vote, and the statewide winner receives the remaining two.
Some Republicans had hoped to shift Nebraska to a winner-take-all system, as one of its electoral votes typically goes to the Democrat, but the effort faltered.
Electors convene in their respective states in mid-December to cast their votes for president. This gathering takes place on the first Tuesday after the second Wednesday in December. This year, it falls on December 17th.
Though there’s no constitutional or federal law mandating electors to vote for the candidate pledged to them, they nearly always do. “Faithless electors” are rare, as party leaders typically select them.
The Electoral College by the Numbers
A total of 538 electors reside across the 50 states and Washington, D.C.
Each state’s number of electors is based on its congressional delegation size. States with smaller populations, such as Alaska, Delaware, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming, each have three electors (representing one House Representative and two Senators), while California, the most populous state, has 54. Washington, D.C., also receives three electors.
States can gain or lose electors as population shifts. Following the 2020 Census, Texas gained two electoral votes and five states each gained one, while seven states lost one elector.
Who Chooses the Electors?
The major political parties select electors before the general election. Their sole purpose is to convene after the November election and cast two votes – one for president and one for vice president.
Who Are the Electors?
Each party’s slate of electors often includes state and local officials, party leaders, community activists, and other dedicated party members. They are chosen “to recognize their service and dedication to that political party.”
There are no specific qualifications, although members of Congress and certain other officials are disqualified, as are individuals who have engaged in insurrection or rebellion.
The Tiebreaker: What if No One Wins?
In the rare occurrence of an Electoral College tie – where each candidate receives 269 votes – members of the newly elected House of Representatives would determine the presidential outcome, while the Senate would select the vice president.
This contingency election would also take place if no candidate secures a majority win. This could occur if a third-party candidate wins some electoral votes or if “faithless electors” break their pledge.
If the decision falls to the House, each state receives a single vote, regardless of congressional delegation size. The 50 House delegations (D.C. would not participate) would select one of the top three presidential candidates.
The vice president would be chosen by a simple majority in the Senate, with each senator holding a vote. It’s conceivable that the president and vice president could be from different parties.
Since the 12th Amendment’s ratification in 1804, there have been two contingent elections.
In 1824, four presidential candidates split the vote, preventing any from gaining a majority. John Quincy Adams won through the House despite Andrew Jackson securing the popular and electoral vote plurality.
In 1837, Martin Van Buren won a majority of electoral votes, but Virginia’s 23 electors refused to support his vice-presidential candidate, Richard Johnson, becoming “faithless electors.” Johnson fell one vote short, leading to a contingent election in the Senate, which he easily won.
Why Vote if the Electoral College Decides?
Five presidents in American history have lost the popular vote but won the election, prompting debate over the Electoral College’s relevance. Though it can be amended,
changing this system requires a two-thirds majority vote in both houses of Congress and ratification by 38 states – a significant hurdle.
A 2023 Pew Research poll revealed that 65% of Americans support electing the president through the popular vote, not the Electoral College.
Hoping to amend the process, hundreds of proposals have been introduced in Congress. There is also the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, adopted by 17 states and D.C. This agreement ensures the popular vote winner receives all the electors from participating states, but only becomes active once enough states join.
Why maintain the Electoral College despite substantial public dissatisfaction? The Founders saw it as a compromise between congressional selection and direct
public voting. Advocates argue it prevents less populous states from being underrepresented, discouraging candidates from solely focusing on densely populated urban centers.
AHistoric Overview: The Electoral College Through the Ages
The Founding Fathers established the Electoral College in the Constitution in 1787. While the term ”Electoral College” is absent from the document, the word “electors” appears.
The 12th Amendment, ratified in 1804, modified some Electoral College rules, including requiring separate electoral votes for president and vice president. With the 23rd Amendment’s ratification in 1961, Washington, D.C., received three electors.
Interview: Understanding the Electoral College with Political Expert Dr. Emily Roberts
Time.news Editor: Welcome, Dr. Roberts. Thank you for joining us today to discuss the fascinating yet often misunderstood Electoral College.
Dr. Emily Roberts: Thank you for having me! It’s always a pleasure to dive into such an important topic.
Time.news Editor: Let’s start with the basics. Can you explain how the Electoral College functions in the U.S. presidential election system?
Dr. Emily Roberts: Absolutely. The Electoral College is the method by which we indirectly elect our president and vice president. There are 538 electoral votes total, and a candidate needs 270 to win. Each state allocates its electors based on its congressional representation, which means more populous states have more electoral votes. For example, California has 54 electoral votes, while smaller states like Wyoming, North Dakota, and Vermont have just three.
Time.news Editor: You mentioned that a candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win. How do these votes get allocated after the general election?
Dr. Emily Roberts: After the popular vote in November, states determine the slate of electors based on who won the popular vote in that state. Most states use a winner-take-all system where all of the state’s electoral votes go to the candidate who receives the most votes. However, Maine and Nebraska have a proportional system, which can lead to a split in electoral votes.
Time.news Editor: Fascinating. So, even if a candidate loses the popular vote nationally, they can still win the presidency, as we saw with Donald Trump in 2016. How does this happen?
Dr. Emily Roberts: That’s correct! In the 2016 election, Trump lost the popular vote by about 2.8 million votes to Hillary Clinton but won key battleground states that secured him the majority of electoral votes. This scenario is not as rare as one might think; five U.S. presidents have ascended to the White House despite losing the popular vote.
Time.news Editor: With Trump now seeking the GOP nomination again, how do you see the dynamics of the Electoral College changing with the upcoming 2024 election against a potential Vice President Harris?
Dr. Emily Roberts: It’s certainly going to be an intriguing election. With demographic shifts and changes in state populations, the distribution of electoral votes can shift as well. For example, Texas gained two electoral votes after the 2020 Census due to population growth. These shifts can influence strategies for both candidates. The winning strategy will likely hinge more on targeted campaigning in swing states rather than national popular support.
Time.news Editor: And what happens if there’s a tie in the Electoral College? It sounds complex!
Dr. Emily Roberts: It is! If there is a tie—say, 269 votes each—then the House of Representatives would select the president with each state delegation casting one vote. The Senate would then choose the vice president. This has only happened a couple of times in history, most notably in 1824, when John Quincy Adams was elected despite Andrew Jackson winning both the popular and electoral vote plurality.
Time.news Editor: That’s quite an extraordinary scenario. Lastly, some might question the relevance of their vote if the Electoral College makes the final decision. What would you say to that?
Dr. Emily Roberts: It’s an understandable concern. However, voting is crucial in determining the popular vote, which influences the allocation of electors and reflects the will of the people. It fosters engagement in the democratic process. Additionally, turnout can change the narrative in key states, ultimately influencing how electors, who are party loyalists, view their responsibilities.
Time.news Editor: Thank you, Dr. Roberts, for such a detailed and enlightening discussion on the Electoral College. It certainly adds a layer of complexity to our understanding of how presidential elections unfold in this country.
Dr. Emily Roberts: Thank you! It’s an important topic that deserves attention, especially as we approach the next election cycle.
