How the financial markets could react to the federal election

NOh a little more than a week until the general election – and the financial markets are also concerned about how much this directional decision could drive prices or even lead to turbulence. Surprises in relation to the surveys could move the bond and currency markets in particular – but also an extraordinarily long and difficult formation of a government, says the economist Andreas Billmeier of the investment company Western Asset, a subsidiary of Franklin Templeton: “The financial markets don’t like uncertainty at all; After the previous federal election in 2017, for example, some investors reacted with concern when the FDP broke off negotiations on the Jamaica coalition at the end of November. “

The fear of stalemate

The financial expert describes the expectations of the financial markets from today’s perspective as follows: It is most likely that the SPD will become the strongest party on September 26th, the CDU behind, the Greens the third strongest party and then presumably the FDP will come. “If there are large deviations from the polls, that is, the surveys, this could have an impact on the markets – that would be a possibility of tangible consequences for investors,” says the financial expert.

If a stalemate between the three likely strongest parties – SPD, CDU and Greens – should lead to very complicated coalition negotiations, this could put a strain on the bond markets and the stock markets for some time, says Billmeier. A government participation of the Greens, however, would not shake the markets: “This is different from a few years ago.”

In the meantime it has become a widespread opinion among investors in the financial market that a green turnaround is necessary: ​​“After all, green financial products have also become more and more important.” The goal of more climate protection is not disputed among most of the parties; The only struggle is the way and the pace: “As a fright for the financial markets, as in the past, the Greens have definitely had their day.”



Leave a Comment

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Recent News

Editor's Pick