How will the authoritarian leader of Azerbaijan behave after the victory in Karabakh?

by time news

2023-11-14 11:29:01

President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev raised the flag of Azerbaijan in Khankendi on October 15. This was the symbolic end of the victory, the end of the Armenian occupation.

“All the promises I made in the last 20 years, all the tasks I set before myself have been fulfilled”, – these are the words of Ilham Aliyev in front of the camera.

This claim begs the question: If all duties have been fulfilled, what will happen next?

“We have also restored historical justice”

Journalist Joshua KucheraIt is said in the article written by Ilham Aliyev that the main intention of Ilham Aliyev’s presidency was to rid the mountainous part of Karabakh from the Armenian armed forces that occupied it since the early 1990s. All priorities were subordinated to this issue.

“The struggle to restore our independence, territorial integrity and sovereignty has been our main motive for more than 20 years, since our lands were occupied. Now this issue is over. We have regained our pride. At the same time, we have restored historical justice.”– representative of the President of Azerbaijan on special assignments Elchin Amirbeyov He said so in an interview with Radio Liberty.

Negotiations on a peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia continue.

A. Goyushov

Head of the Baku Research Institute, historian Altai Goyushov says that the diplomatic process is not over, “because Aliyev does not want it to end; he wants this mood to last. As long as Aliyev is in power, there will always be war. Because he understands that this rhetoric of war is the only thing that will bring him the support of the people..

Aliyev and other high officials often warn about “revanchism”. This word has been used a lot since 2020. Amirbeyov claims that although the revanchist approach is stronger among the political opposition of Armenia, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has not given up on it either.

“They are not going in the right direction”

France, the main ally of Armenia in Europe, is preparing a resolution for the UN Security Council. French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna said that the “deportation” of Armenians from Karabakh is a serious crime and cannot go unanswered. Aliyev’s representative Amirbeyovsa says that Pashinyan is abusing the fact that France is a permanent member of the Security Council. “They are not going in the right direction,” he said.

E. Amirbeyov

“To us [Ermənistanın revanşizmdən əl çəkməsi haqda] The first step that will give a signal will be Pashinyan’s clear statement that he should not oppose the results of the last military conflict with real steps, not with statements.– Amirbeyov also said this.

According to Goyushov, the joy of victory passes quickly and the euphoria of 2020 did not last long. This year, the public’s attention is again focused on social problems. Protests against environmental pollution in Soyudlu were suppressed by the strict pressure of the security forces.

Researcher of the Russia and Eurasia program of London-based think tank Chatham House Lourens Broers (Laurence Broers) says that political science shows that authoritarian leaders maintain their power by balancing three “pillars”: repression, co-optation, and legitimacy.

According to him, the fact that Azerbaijan is rich in natural resources has made co-optation the main pillar. But natural resources are exhaustible. In 2003, the fact that power was transferred through the dynasty, that is, Ilham Aliyev took over power from his father, always puts the issue of legitimacy in serious doubt.

Freedom radio

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